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黄 茹, 杨贵羽.黄淮海流域干旱时间组合特征分析水资源与水工程学报[J].,2015,26(2):1-6
黄淮海流域干旱时间组合特征分析
Analysis of combination characteristics of drought time in Huanghuaihai River basin
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.02.001
中文关键词:  标准化降水指数(SPI)  干旱  多时间尺度  组合特征  黄淮海流域
英文关键词:Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)  drought  multiple time scales  combined characteristics  Huanghuaihai river basin
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) 项目( 2010CB951102) ; 国家自然科学基金项目( 51279207)
作者单位
黄 茹, 杨贵羽 (中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室 北京 100038) 
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中文摘要:
      采用自组织映射图(SOM)神经网络法对流域气象站点进行聚类分析,结合中国气候分区将流域划分为7个子分区。基于流域及其周边203个基本气象站点1961-2013年的降水资料,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)、线性倾向估计和M-K趋势检验法分析了流域多时间尺度干旱的组合特征。结果表明:年尺度上,淮河下游地区的干旱频率最高,达37.74%。除了流域的北部和西部地区以外,其他地区的干旱均呈加重趋势;季节尺度上,流域的东北部和北部地区春旱发生频率最高,淮河下游地区夏旱和冬旱的发生频率最高,流域的北部和中部地区秋旱发生频率最高。流域小范围区域的春旱和夏旱呈加剧趋势,流域南部的大范围区域秋旱呈加剧趋势,全流域的冬旱呈减弱趋势。
英文摘要:
      Combining with the Chinese climate divisions, the paper divided the basin into seven sub-regions by clustering analysis for meteorological stations and using self-organizing map (SOM) neural network method. It analyzed the combination characteristics of multiple time scales of drought in Huanghuaihai River basin by using standardized precipitation index (SPI),linear trend estimation and M-K trend test based on the daily precipitation data of 203 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2013.The results indicated that on annual scale, the downstream of Huaihe River has the highest drought frequency which reaches 37.74%. Drought of other regions of the basin presents intensified trend except north and west regions of the basin. On seasonal scale, northeast and north regions of the basin have the highest spring drought frequency. The downstream of Huaihe River basin have the highest drought frequency in summer and winter.The northern and central region have the highest drought frequency in autumn. The drought in small area of the basin shows a tendency to aggravate in spring and summer. The drought in most parts of the basin has intensified trend in autumn. The drought in the whole basin shows a weakensing trend in winter.
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