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常远勇, 谈建国, 彭 杰, 顾 问.上海市日供水量与气象要素的相关性分析及预测模型的建立水资源与水工程学报[J].,2015,26(1):32-36
上海市日供水量与气象要素的相关性分析及预测模型的建立
Relativity analysis of daily water supply and meteorology factor and establishment of forecast model in Shanghai
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.01.006
中文关键词:  日供水量  气象要素  相关性  供水预测模型
英文关键词:daily water supply  meteorological factor  correlation  forecast model of water supply
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41275021); 上海市科委项目(13231201400)
作者单位
常远勇1, 谈建国1, 彭 杰1,2, 顾 问1 (1.上海市气象科学研究所 上海 200030
2.北京师范大学 北京 100875) 
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中文摘要:
      基于上海市2010-05-2013-12日供水资料和气象观测资料,利用数学统计方法分析日供水量与气象因子的关系,并建立日供水量预报模型。结果表明:一年之中,日供水量大体呈现“单峰单谷”的波动特征,夏季(7、8月份)日均供水最多,冬季(2月份)最少;日供水量具有显著的节假日效应;除降水外,日供水量与其它气象因子均有显著的相关性,且夏半年相关系数明显高于冬半年;日供水量与温度的关系最为密切,且与前一日最高温度的相关系数最高,同时,当温度大于20℃时,日供水量对于温度变化的响应极其敏感;供水预报模型精度较高,可为城市用水规划、合理调度的气象服务保障提供科学依据。
英文摘要:
      Based on the data of daily water supply and meteorology in Shanghai from May 2010 to December 2013,The paper analyzed the correlation between daily water supply and meteorological factors,and established forecast model of daily water supply.The results show that daily water supply generally presents volatility distribution with one peak and one valley within one year.The daily water supply is the largest in summer (especially in July and August)and the smallest in winter (especially in February). The daily water supply exhibits significant holiday effect and has significant relativity with all the meteorological factors except precipitation., The correlativity of daily water supply with the meteorological factor in the summer half year is much higher than that in winter half year. The water supply is most closely correlated to temperature and has the highest correlation coefficient with the temperature of the day before. Meanwhile,the water supply has extremely sensitive response to the variation of temperature when it is greater than 20℃. The forecast model has high precision and can provide the scientific basis for the meteorological services of urban water plan and reasonable dispatch.
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