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李小萌, 何 理, 卢宏玮.基于模糊可信度约束的不确定性农业水资源规划模型研究水资源与水工程学报[J].,2014,25(4):108-114
基于模糊可信度约束的不确定性农业水资源规划模型研究
Research on plan model of water resources of uncertainty agriculture based on fuzzy and credibility constrained
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2014.04.022
中文关键词:  水资源规划  农业灌溉  可信度  不确定性  乌鲁木齐
英文关键词:water resources management  agricultural irrigation  credibility  uncertainty  Urumqi
基金项目:环保部公益性行业科研专项(201309063)
作者单位
李小萌, 何 理, 卢宏玮 (华北电力大学 可再生能源学院 北京 102206) 
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中文摘要:
      水资源短缺问题是制约农业经济发展的重要因素,因此在水资源规划中应着重考虑水资源利用效率与农业效益之间的平衡问题。研究提出了基于模糊可信度约束算法建立的农业水资源规划模型,通过调节用水量与农业效益之间的平衡关系,实现农业效益最大化。所建立的模型改进了以往规划方法的不足,并提出不同可信度水平λ值以及不同情景下的灌溉系统分析,可以为决策者提供重要参考依据。实例研究结果表明:乌鲁木齐某地农业灌溉系统中3类作物的灌溉配比对最终收益利润总和的影响较大,可信度水平λ是权衡收益与成本的重要因素。通过研究可信度水平λ值对模型的影响,可为决策者提供更多的水资源管理优化备选方案,并有效提高农业灌溉系统的社会、经济和环境效益。
英文摘要:
      The problem of water resources shortage is an importent factor which constrains the development of agriculture economy so that the balance problem between the efficiency of water resources utilization and agriculture. The paper proposed to set up plan model of agriculture water resources based on the method of fuzzy credibility-constrained. The method realized the greatest agriculture benefit through regulating the balance problem between water demand and agriculture efficency.The established model improved the shortcomings of planning method in the past,and set up an irrigation systems under different credibility levels of λ value and different scenarios, which can provide important reference for decision-makers. The results show that the irrigation ratio of three categories in the irrigation system of a place of Urumqi has greater impact on the final sum of the profit gain.The credibility level λ is the important factor to weigh the benefits and costs. The study on the impact of confidence level λ on the model can provide more options to optimize water management for decision makers and improve the social, economic and environmental benefits of agricultural irrigation system.
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