The study on mountainous runoff response to the climate changes of upstream of Shule River has important significance for the comprehensive plan of the River basin and the water resources development. The paper adopted the ways of cumulative anomaly, Mann - Kendall,Moving t-Test and Yamamot method to analyze the temperature and precipitation of Tuole weather station from 1956to 2011and the measured data of yearly runoff of Changmapu hydromettic station at the same period. The result shows that the change tendencies of these three factors all show a tendency of increase, the average temperature increases 0.035℃ yearly, average precipitation increases 1.25mm yearly and average runoff increases 10.2million cubic meter yearly. Temperature, precipitation and runoff all happened an obvious mutation in 1997,witch might show a wetting signal of the valley. Through the analysis of the relationship between runoff of Shule River and the temperature, precipitation of upstream, it established multi-variable CAR model and achieved good effect.