• ▶ 2008-2024年被中国情报信息研究所评价中心评为“中国科技核心期刊”
  • ▶ 2019-2024年连续三届被中国科学院文献情报中心中国科学引文数据库CSCD(核心库)收录
  • ▶ 2021、2023年入编北京大学图书馆《中文核心期刊要目总览》
  • ▶ 2020-2024连续四年入选《科技期刊世界影响力指数(WJCI)报告》
王 萍,朱庆文,何书清.东海县需水量预测研究水资源与水工程学报[J].,2013,24(2):103-108
东海县需水量预测研究
Prediction of water demand in Donghai County
投稿时间:2012-10-16  修订日期:2013-03-01
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2013.02.023
中文关键词:  需水量  定额分析法  灰色预测模型  三次指数平滑  组合预测  东海县
英文关键词:water demand  quota analysis method  grey prediction method  smooth model SM2  compound prediction  Donghai county
基金项目:
作者单位
王 萍 河海大学 水利与社会发展研究所, 南京 210098 
朱庆文 河海大学 商学院, 南京 211100 
何书清 东海县水务局, 连云港 222300 
摘要点击次数: 2349
全文下载次数: 1129
中文摘要:
      为了提高对东海县需水量的预测精度,将比重较大且表现出很高随机性的灌溉需水量从需水总量中单独划出,采用定额法按不同频率年型对其进行预测;以灰色预测模型和三次指数平滑模型的组合预测法对非灌溉需水量进行预测,在确定单个模型的权重时更多地考虑了近期残差对预测值的影响;将灌溉需水量和非灌溉需水量汇总即可得到最终的预测值。该方法对数据要求不高并且能够按照不同的概率给出相应的需水量范围,从东海县需水量的历史数据可以判断最终的预测成果比较合理。
英文摘要:
      In order to enhance the prediction accuracy of water demand in Donghai County, this paper extracted irrigation water demand quantity which counted high proportion and showed strong randomness from the total water demand. Quota analysis method was taken to predict irrigation water demand quantity on the basis of different frequency years. Compound prediction method composed with the smooth model SM2and the grey prediction model was taken to predict non-irrigation water demand. When the weight of each single model was set, the impacts in residual errors in recent periods on the prediction value were more considered. Final prediction could be available by summating the quantity of irrigation and non-irrigation water demand. This method requires less data and can give ranges of water demand quantity based on different probabilities. The final prediction result was reasonable judged by the history data of water demand in Donghai County.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器
关闭