水资源与水工程学报

XUE Tianzhu,MA Can,WEI Guoxiao,YANG Jiali,XU Xiang.甘肃梨园河流域SWAT径流模拟与预报水资源与水工程学报[J].,2011,22(4):

甘肃梨园河流域SWAT径流模拟与预报

SWAT runoff simulation and predictions in Liyuan River basin of Gansu Province

DOI：

英文关键词:SWAT model surface runoff simulation Liyuan River basin

基金项目:国家自然科学基金创新群体项目(40721061)资助

作者	单位
XUE Tianzhu,MA Can,WEI Guoxiao,YANG Jiali,XU Xiang	兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室福建省松溪县水利局

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中文摘要:

以甘肃梨园河流域为研究对象,收集相关资料组织数据库,建立SWAT分布式流域水文模型,并模拟1990-1999年月地表径流过程。通过比较模拟值与实测值得相对误差Re小于10%,相关系数R2和Nash-Sutcliffe系数Ens均大于0.80,模拟效果较好,认为SWAT模型可适用于梨园河流域的地表径流模拟。而后结合自回归模型和时域法预测的气象数据,加载到已率定的SWAT模型中预测2009-2018年地表径流。结果表明:预测期径流深呈下降趋势,分析径流对气候变化的水文响应,认为径流对气温的水文响应的敏感性较径流对降水的敏感性高。

英文摘要:

Data regarding to Liyuan River basin were collected to establish a data-base.Then,a physically based distributed hydrological model(SWAT) was used to simulate the surface runoff from 1990 to 1999 on the basis of this data-base.After that,the analog value was compared with the actual one,we could get the results that the relative error is less than 10%,the correlation and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients are both above 0.80.It indicated that the established SWAT model can be applied to the surface runoff simulati...

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