水资源与水工程学报

ZHAO Ling,ZHANG Jian,CHEN Tao.基于ARIMA的乘积季节模型在城市供水量预测中的应用水资源与水工程学报[J].,2011,22(1):

基于ARIMA的乘积季节模型在城市供水量预测中的应用

Application of product seasonal ARIMA model to the forecast of urban water supply

DOI：

英文关键词:urban water supply forecast of urban water supply seasonal effects ARIMA model product seasonal model

基金项目:四川省软科学研究计划项目(09RKX0027)

作者	单位
ZHAO Ling,ZHANG Jian,CHEN Tao	四川师范大学,数学与软件科学学院,可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室,四川,成都,610068

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中文摘要:

随看我国经济快速增长、居民收入水平的显著提高,城市供用水量快速增长。本文以成都市2006年至2010年2月供水量数据为基础,在剔除了长期趋势及季节因素后,对其残差序列进行分析和识别,建立了城市月供水量的乘积季节模型ARIMA(3,1,1)(1,1,1)12,并根据此模型对2010年全年月供水量进行预测,拟合效果良好。

英文摘要:

With China's rapid economic growth,the people's income levels significantly increased with rapid increase of the city water supply and water use.based on the water supply data in Chengdu City from 2006 to the February 2010,disregarded the long-term trends and seasonal factors,through analysis and identification for the residual sequence,this paper established the city monthly water supply of the product seasonal ARIMA model(3,1,1)(1,1,1)12.According to this model,the paper forecasted the month water supply ...

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