Page 31 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2023年第5期
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! 5# jkl, H: 23 SPEI 6mnopqrstuvwxyz{w|e_}~PQ 2 7
PQ、
Q、
]、
_ 6 ¦a|˦Ï_ªÂ ,q, È 6a | Ë ¦ Ï _ ª  ' y GP、GEV、
'y GEV、GEV、GP、logN、P- ⅢN GP; °` logN、logN、GP N P- Ⅲ。
1 ÊwËG²ÎÏçVåè^©rSéGÖUêÄÅ
°` K-S th A-DGÄ6 ˦
¦a ݪ4
d6 Gam log Llog N WbP- Ⅲ GEV GP Gam log Llog N WbP- Ⅲ GEV GP Ï_ª
k=0.2785
· √ √ √ × √ √ √ 2.630.870.934.670.990.6023.78 GEV σ =0.7065
u=1.2233
k=0.3769
P_ × √ √ × √ √ √ 4.541.671.665.345.110.998.13 GEV σ =0.7663
u=1.2043
k=0.0846
¢
PQ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ 2.851.491.234.230.391.100.26 GP σ =1.3019
u=0.4985
σ =0.6814
Q √ √ √ √ √ √ √ 2.441.070.793.294.260.854.25 logN
u=0.5113
α=1.1125
] √ √ √ √ √ √ √ 0.801.030.631.530.540.718.09 P-Ⅲ β=1.4252
γ=0.5139
k=-0.1126
_ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ 1.401.601.282.684.711.560.63 GP σ =1.7736
u=0.4132
k=0.0017
· √ √ √ √ √ √ √ 1.821.050.923.670.461.100.38 GP σ =1.0221
u=0.2939
k=0.3618
P_ × √ √ √ √ √ √ 3.890.920.803.841.250.744.15 GEV σ =0.5621
u=0.7719
σ =0.7318
,q
PQ × √ √ √ √ √ √ 4.490.580.282.390.520.3815.66 logN
u=0.0633
σ =0.8064
Q √ √ √ √ √ √ √ 1.560.640.472.001.200.804.22 logN
u=0.0975
k=-0.0201
] √ √ √ √ √ √ √ 1.450.880.722.974.200.770.17 GP σ =0.8405
u=0.2912
α=1.1543
_ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ 0.590.870.511.650.270.684.04 P-Ⅲ β=0.9304
γ=0.3172
=:“ √”¼qðñ K-S th;“×”¼q/ðñ K-S th。
Ϧa°`¢N°`,q£|HF+ N,q£WÈK±|HS, °`°±d6í£|
¼ 2 Äq。 A¼ 2 ·Å Rx, ϦaÑ°`d6 HX Â Ø S ê k, Å ø ¹ ÷ ¹ | Copula_ ª
£| Pearson、Kendall N Spearman HFªk (Clayton、FrankGumbel、Joe) ò^°±d6£|
0.5 Ëðñ p=0.01 |ÐnSth, ¼½°`¢ யÖÀ¦§。