Page 5 - 《水资源与水工程学报》2023年第4期
P. 5
!34 " ! 4 # & ' ( ) & * + , - Vol.34No.4
2023 $ 8% JournalofWaterResources&WaterEngineering Aug.,2023
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2023.04.01
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MNOPQ:P333 7RSTU:A 7VWQ:1672643X(2023)04000106
Stochasticmodelingresearchprogressofhydrologicalnonstationary
heteroscedasticityseriesinthechangingenvironmentofwatershed
SONGSongbai
(CollegeofWaterResourcesandArchitecturalEngineering,NorthwestA&FUniversity,Yangling712100,China)
Abstract:Theheteroscedasticityofwatershedhydrologicalseriescausedbyclimatechangeandhighin
tensityhumanactivitieshasdestroyedthepreconditionofBox-JekinsARMAmodel.Inviewofthis,the
mainresearchcontentsandapproacheswereproposedbasedonthedomesticandforeignresearchprogress
andcurrentmajorscientificproblems.Theobservedseriesoffinance ,economicsandsignalprocessing
aresimilartotheheteroscedasticityfluctuationcharacteristicsofhydrologicalnonstationaryseriesinthe
changingenvironmentofwatershed ,andmanysuccessfulcaseshavebeenobtainedintheseareas.So,it
maybefeasibletoapplytheheteroskedasticityprinciplesandmethodsofthesefieldstothestochastic
modelingofhydrologicalnonstationaryseries.Also ,itisapracticalmodelingapproachcomparedwith
thedistributedhydrologicalmodels.Someideasproposedinthispaperareexpectedtoshedsomelighton
theaccuratedescriptionofthechanginglawofhydrologicalelementsinthechangingenvironment ,andto
provideabasisfortheplanning ,designandscientificmanagementofwaterrelatedprojects,aswellas
droughtriskregulationandcontrol.
Keywords:changingenvironment;hydrologicalnonstationaryseries;heteroscedasticity;stochastic
modeling;watershed
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