文章摘要
叶 平, 梁生蕃, 朱永宁, 李福生, 葛 静, 冯东溥.气候变化下宁夏中南部马铃薯不同生育期干旱特征及驱动因素分析Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2025,36(2):200-206
气候变化下宁夏中南部马铃薯不同生育期干旱特征及驱动因素分析
Drought characteristics and driving factors in different growth stages of potatoes under climate change in central and southern Ningxia
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.02.23
中文关键词: 马铃薯  作物水分亏缺指数  通径分析  农业干旱  气候变化  宁夏中南部
英文关键词: potato  crop water deficit index  path analysis  agricultural drought  climate change  central and southern Ningxia
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42365010);彭阳县科技研发项目(2023PKJ0034);宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划项目(2023BCF01054)
Author NameAffiliation
YE Ping1, LIANG Shengfan1, ZHU Yongning2, LI Fusheng2, GE Jing3, FENG Dongpu4 (1. 彭阳县农业综合开发服务中心 宁夏 彭阳 756500 2.宁夏回族自治区气象局 宁夏 银川 750002 3.宁夏大学 农学院 宁夏 银川 750021 4.宁夏大学 土木与水利工程学院 宁夏 银川 750021) 
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中文摘要:
      干旱是影响宁夏中南部马铃薯种植业的关键气象灾害。然而,在气候变化背景下,各生育期干旱的时空特征及驱动因素仍未明确。基于1991—2020年间宁夏中南部8个气象站的数据,使用作物水分亏缺指数(CWDI)作为指标,通过Mann-Kendall检验探讨了不同生育期内气象因素和干旱强度的时间变化趋势,并利用地理信息系统(GIS)技术分析了干旱等级和频率的空间分布特征,同时采用通径分析识别干旱的主要驱动因素。结果表明:在多数站点,开花-收获期间降水量和作物需水量显著减少,而整个生育期内风速呈显著下降趋势;生育期内干旱强度由大到小依次为分枝-开花期、开花-收获期和出苗-分枝期,且2010s的干旱强度低于1990s和2000s;各生育期的干旱频率分别为26%~74%(出苗-分枝期)、48%~94%(开花-收获期)、76%~100%(分枝-开花期);空间上,干旱频率与等级自北向南递减,其中同心站干旱频率和等级最高,泾源站最低;对于CWDI的影响因素,在出苗-分枝期和分枝-开花期按重要性排序为降水>作物需水量>平均气温>日照时数>相对湿度>平均风速;而在开花-收获期则为降水>作物需水量>平均气温>相对湿度>平均风速。
英文摘要:
      Drought is the main meteorological disaster affecting the potato industry in central and southern Ningxia; however, the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of drought in different growth stages of potatoes in Ningxia under climate change have not yet been revealed. Based on the data from eight meteorological stations in central and southern Ningxia from 1991 to 2020, we investigated the temporal characteristics of meteorological elements and drought intensity in different growth stages of potatoes, using crop water efficiency index (CWDI) and Mann-Kendall test. Geographic information system (GIS) was employed to analyze the spatial distribution of drought levels and frequencies, and path analysis was used to identify the main driving factors. The results showed that for most stations, precipitation and crop water demand significantly decreased during the flowering-harvesting period, so did the wind speed throughout the entire growth period. The drought intensity in different growth stages was in the following order: branching-flowering period>flowering-harvesting period> germination-branching period. The average drought intensity in the 2010s has decreased compared with the 1990s and 2000s. Whereas the drought frequency was branching-flowering period (76%-100%)>flowering-harvesting period (48%-94%)>germination-branching period (26%-74%). Spatially, the level and frequency of drought decreased from north to south, with the highest level and frequency in Tongxin Station, and lowest in Jingyuan Station. The influence of driving factors on the germination-branching period and branching-flowering period showed precipitation>crop water demand> average temperature>sunshine hours>relative humidity>average wind speed; but precipitation>crop water demand>average temperature>relative humidity>average wind speed on the flowering-harvesting period.
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