文章摘要
黄禹鑫, 朱永华, 王启猛, 吕海深, 陆 玟, 王怡宁, 朱嘉琪, 孙千桢.淮北平原复合农业干旱和高温事件的特征变化——以蚌埠站为例Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2025,36(2):191-199
淮北平原复合农业干旱和高温事件的特征变化——以蚌埠站为例
Characteristic changes of compound agricultural droughts and heat events in Huaibei Plain: A case study of the Bengbu Station
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.02.22
中文关键词: 农业干旱和高温事件  标准化温度  土壤湿度  驱动因素  Copula函数  淮北平原
英文关键词: compound agricultural droughts and heat events (CADHEs)  standardized temperature  soil moisture  driving factor  Copula function  Huaibei Plain
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42071033、41830752、42471019)
Author NameAffiliation
HUANG Yuxin1,3, ZHU Yonghua1,2,3, WANG Qimeng1,5, L Haishen1,3, LU Wen1,3, WANG Yining1,4, ZHU Jiaqi3, SUN Qianzhen1,3 (1.河海大学 水文水资源学院 江苏 南京 210098 2.河海大学 地理与遥感学院江苏 南京2110003.河海大学 水灾害防御全国重点实验室 江苏 南京 2100984.南京水利科学研究院江苏 南京 210029 5.水利部淮河水利委员会 安徽 蚌埠 233001) 
Hits: 6
Download times: 0
中文摘要:
      为了更精准地进行水资源调配并制定应对复合农业干旱和高温事件(CADHEs)风险的田间管理对策,需要明晰淮北平原冬小麦在抽穗-灌浆期、灌浆-成熟期以及夏玉米全生育期内CADHEs的特征趋势及潜在驱动因素。基于五道沟水文试验站从1986—2021年的日均温度和0~100 cm土层土壤含水率数据,使用标准化温度和土壤湿度指数来识别CADHEs,研究对比了气温突变年(1994年)前后CADHEs的发生频率、烈度以及最大连续天数的变化趋势,并通过Copula方法确定了CADHEs变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:冬小麦灌浆-成熟期和夏玉米拔节-抽雄期CADHEs的发生频率最高,分别为13和23 d/a;这两个时期CADHEs的烈度最大,且存在较多极值,分别可达5.68和6.00;在这两个关键生长期内,出现连续5 d及以上CADHEs的频率最高,并呈现持续增加的趋势,最长连续天数分别达到了12 d和21 d;温度与土壤湿度之间的相关性变化是导致CADHEs增加的主要因素,其次是温度本身的变动。研究成果为更精确地进行水资源调配,以及制定有效的田间管理策略提供了科学依据,特别是对于如何调整灌溉制度和提升田间管理水平以应对CADHEs的风险具有重要意义。
英文摘要:
      Precise water resources allocation and field management strategies addressing compound agricultural droughts and heat events (CADHEs) are essential for crop growth in Huaibei Plain. This study aims to explore the characteristic trends and underlying driving factors of CADHEs during the heading-to-filling and filling-to-maturity stages of winter wheat, as well as the entire growth period of summer maize in the study area. Standardized temperature and soil moisture indices were used to identify CADHEs, based on the daily mean temperature and 0-100 cm soil moisture data from the Wudaogou Hydrological Experimental Station spanning from 1986 to 2021. The characteristics and trends of CADHEs frequency, intensity, and maximum consecutive days before and after the abrupt change in temperature in 1994 were compared, and the main driving factors of CADHEs changes were identified by Copula function. The results show that the highest frequency of CADHEs occurred during the filling-to-maturity stage of winter wheat and jointing-to-tasseling stage of summer maize, with maximum consecutive days of 13 and 23 d, respectively. The intensity of CADHEs during these two stages was the highest, with numerous extreme values, reaching a maximum of 5.68 and 6.00, respectively. The frequency of CADHEs lasting for a maximum of 5 consecutive days or more was extremely high and continued to increase, with maximum consecutive days of 12 and 21 d, respectively. The variation in the correlation between temperature and soil moisture played a dominant role in the increase of CADHEs, followed by temperature changes. These findings can provide a support for precise water resources allocation and effective field management strategies, as well as guide augmentations in irrigation schemes to address CADHEs risks.
View Full Text   View/Add Comment  Download reader
Close
function PdfOpen(url){ var win="toolbar=no,location=no,directories=no,status=yes,menubar=yes,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes"; window.open(url,"",win); } function openWin(url,w,h){ var win="toolbar=no,location=no,directories=no,status=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=no,width=" + w + ",height=" + h; controlWindow=window.open(url,"",win); } &et=D57602E0AFBA104BF8A8BCF1750E56962D171AD244E29560B97DBDC2D8C2DD17B2CB76DA0B4234103D412D58FCFF7F20832B66860AFBE7A7D09F348B57D02A5B1A9F681B018BCCE119499F9561FBEA488D67B775EEF075E60EA791068BB69AED88388895875121396248CD1005DEAC5BCB06DB3331F702D5641D0595DB06E9D6&pcid=5B3AB970F71A803DEACDC0559115BFCF0A068CD97DD29835&cid=3ECA06F115476E3F&jid=BC473CEDCB8CE70D7B12BDD8EA00FF44&yid=E6A891D2134F30C0&aid=&vid=&iid=0B39A22176CE99FB&sid=AC1578C6BB9EBDEF&eid=FCD27DC5E1F2EEE7&fileno=20250222&flag=1&is_more=0">