文章摘要
李江夏, 任宁丹, 邓志远.MSWEP降水产品对中国大陆沿海区域极端降水模拟的评估及校正Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2025,36(2):29-39
MSWEP降水产品对中国大陆沿海区域极端降水模拟的评估及校正
Evaluation of MSWEP for modelling extreme precipitation in the coastal region of China’s mainland and its correction method
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.02.04
中文关键词: 降水量  极端降水模拟  MSWEP  Cressman逐步订正法  中国沿海区域
英文关键词: precipitation  extreme precipitation modelling  MSWEP  Cressman algorithm  coastal area of China
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42376201);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2022JJ40483)
Author NameAffiliation
LI Jiangxia1,2, REN Ningdan1, DENG Zhiyuan1 (1. 长沙理工大学 水利与海洋工程学院 湖南 长沙 410114 2.水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室 湖南 长沙 410114) 
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中文摘要:
      基于1979—2020年中国大陆沿海区域96个气象站点降水观测资料,详细评估了MSWEP高分辨率网格化降水产品在中国大陆沿海区域对极端降水的模拟精度。采用Cressman逐步订正法校正MSWEP,分析搜索半径R对校正结果的敏感性,并评估校正后的MSWEP对实际降水的模拟能力。研究表明:MSWEP降水产品对中国大陆沿海区域的日降水量整体上存在低估现象,北方省份精度略优于南方省份,在极端降水时期存在显著低估;在台风暴雨期间整体数据误差较大,且降水量越大,其低估现象越明显;在搜索半径R的敏感性分析中,最优的搜索半径为2.0°,且以校正3次最佳;校正后的MSWEP对降水的模拟能力整体增强,显著提高了极端暴雨的模拟精度。研究成果可为我国沿海地区降水相关研究提供数据支撑,对沿海省份防灾减灾工作提供参考。
英文摘要:
      Multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) is a high-resolution gridded precipitation product, in this study its simulation accuracy for the precipitation in the coastal area of China’s mainland is evaluated in detail. This evaluation is based on the precipitation data collected from 96 meteorological stations located in the coastal provinces from 1979 to 2020. In this study, we adopted Cressman algorithm to correct the MSWEP, analysed the sensitivity of the search radius (R) to the correction results, and evaluated the effectiveness of the corrected MSWEP for precipitation simulation. The results show that MSWEP tends to underestimate the daily precipitation across the entire coastal region, with a slightly better performance for the northern provinces than the southern provinces and significantly underestimated results in extreme precipitation period. During the typhoon rainstorm period, the overall data error is unacceptably large and the underestimation becomes more obvious with increasing precipitation. According to the sensitivity analysis of R, the optimal value of R is 2.0°and applying correction three times yields the best results. The overall performance of the corrected MSWEP for precipitation simulation is enhanced, and its accuracy for extreme rainstorm simulation is significantly improved. The research outcomes can provide a data support for precipitation related research, as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in the coastal area of China.
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