Groundwater overexploitation in North China Plain have intensified wetland degradation. To identify the degradation situation in Baoding City, we analyzed the distribution and changes of wetlands using GIS technology based on the land use data of 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Additionally, a Markov model was constructed by Python to simulate the wetland evolution in the study area in 2025, under the scenarios of natural evolution, intensified groundwater overexploitation and natural recharge. Prediction analysis was duly conducted based on the simulated evolution trends. The results suggest that the total area of wetlands showed a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2010, indicating a severe wetland degradation in the study area. Then, it began to increase from 2010 to 2020, suggesting a mitigation of wetland degradation. By 2025, the wetland area in the study area is projected to increase by 16.23 km2 under the scenario of natural evolution; however, the degradation remains severe in Anxin County, Fuping County, Quyang County, and Tang County. Under the scenario of intensified groundwater overexploitation, the wetland area is expected to decrease by 13.94 km2, with significant wetland degradation distributing in the periphery of extraction sites. Conversely, under the scenario of natural recharge, the wetland area will increase by 21.68, 27.32, and 32.82 km2, corresponding to the rising levels of precipitation, which will in turn lead to a continuous improvement in the degradation. The research results can provide a technical support for wetland protection, as well as the management and control of groundwater overexploitation.