In order to explore the mutual feedback mechanism of yield and water in dry orchards in northern Shaanxi Province, apple orchards in four counties of Baota, Luochuan, Suide, and Zizhou are selected for the case study. The dynamics of orchard yield and soil moisture were simulated and analyzed based on the WinEPIC model under different precipitation levels from 1980 to 2018. Meanwhile, the impact of water supply on the yield of apple trees of different ages, soil moisture and water stress were investigated to analyze the appropriate water supply quotas and planting years for apple trees under different precipitation levels in northern Shannxi. The results showed that the average annual orchard yield under historical precipitation was consistently higher than that under consecutive normal precipitation and moderately dry precipitation. The fluctuations of water productivity were greater in the moderately dry precipitation years than that in the normal precipitation years, indicating that continuous water shortage exacerbated the inter-annual instability of water use efficiency in the orchard. The orchards aged 4 to 25 years in Suide and Zizhou performed better in terms of yield stability, high yield, and sustainability under consecutive normal precipitation and moderately dry precipitation. The deep soil moisture decreased with the age of the trees and tended to gradually decrease to wilting point, especially under consecutive moderately dry precipitation. The water stress caused by consecutive normal precipitation or moderately dry precipitation was longer and triggered a more pronounced yield reduction. It is suggested that when consecutive moderately dry precipitation occurs, attention should be paid to water retention.