文章摘要
王海庆, 齐 鹏, 章光新, 陈月鑫.全球气候模型对东北地区地下水储量评估的不确定性Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2024,35(6):88-97
全球气候模型对东北地区地下水储量评估的不确定性
Uncertainty of global climate model assessment for groundwater storage in northeast China
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.06.09
中文关键词: 地下水储量  全球气候模型  CMIP6  LSTM法  东北地区
英文关键词: groundwater storage  global climate models (GCMs)  coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6)  long short-term memory (LSTM)  northeast China
基金项目:吉林省优秀青年科技人才项目(应用技术类)(20230508099RC);国家自然科学基金项目(42371037)
Author NameAffiliation
WANG Haiqing1,2, QI Peng2, ZHANG Guangxin2, CHEN Yuexin1 (1.黑龙江大学 水利电力学院 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150080 2.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所黑土地保护与利用重点实验室 吉林 长春 130102) 
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中文摘要:
      基于全球气候模型GCMs集合是进行水文变量预测的常用方法,但GCMs的多样性使模型预测结果存在很大的不确定性。通过长短期记忆模型(LSTM)结合7种GCMs集合预测了东北地区2022—2100年4种情景下的月尺度地下水储量。结果表明:通过等权平均,东北地区地下水储量(GWS)总体呈现上升趋势,SSP585情景增长速率最大,达到0.20 mm/a;不同GCMs的输出结果在空间、变化幅度上存在显著差异,趋势差异最值达到0.33 mm/a,且不确定性随时间推移而增加;以44°N为分界线,所有GCMs较历史时期的GWS差值变化在不同情景下均呈现南部减少、北部增大的趋势。研究结果对于GCMs在气候模拟中的应用,以及预测中国东北地区未来的地下水储量都具有重要意义。
英文摘要:
      Ensemble-based global climate models (GCMs) are commonly used for predicting hydrological variables, but the diversity of GCMs introduces significant uncertainty in model predictions. Thus, this study employs the long short-term memory (LSTM) model combined with ensemble predictions from seven GCMs to forecast monthly groundwater storage (GWS) in the northeast region under four scenarios from 2022 to 2100. Results indicate that the GWS in the northeast region exhibits a general increasing trend, with the highest growth rate of 0.20 mm/a under the SSP585 scenario through equal-weight averaging. However, significant spatial and temporal differences are observed in the output results of different GCMs, with the maximum difference in trends reaching 0.33 mm/a. Using 44°N as the boundary, all GCMs show a consistent trend of decreasing GWS in the south and increasing GWS in the north compared to the historical period under different scenarios. The findings of this study can shed some light on the application of GCMs in climate simulation and the prediction of future groundwater storage in northeast China.
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