文章摘要
史瑞博, 周育琳, 魏 兴, 陈元珺, 方 丽.WRF模式对三峡库区万州段特大暴雨的模拟分析Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2024,35(6):75-87
WRF模式对三峡库区万州段特大暴雨的模拟分析
WRF simulation of heavy rain in Wanzhou section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.06.08
中文关键词: WRF模式  特大暴雨  参数化方案  TS评分  误差分析  三峡库区万州段
英文关键词: weather research and forecasting (WRF) model  heavy rain  parameterization scheme  threat score (TS)  error analysis  Wanzhou section of the Three Gorges Reservoir
基金项目:重庆市自然科学基金项目(CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0694、CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1392); 重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJQN202201210、KJQN202201224、KJQN202301209); 重庆市万州区科技创新项目(wzstc20230313); 重庆市水利科技项目(CQSLK-20240023)
Author NameAffiliation
SHI Ruibo1, ZHOU Yulin1, WEI Xing1, CHEN Yuanjun2, FANG Li2 (1.重庆三峡学院 土木工程学院 重庆 404100 2.重庆市万州区气象局 重庆 404100) 
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中文摘要:
      为提升三峡库区万州段暴雨模拟与预报精度,基于中尺度模式WRF及FNL再分析资料,针对三峡库区万州段4次典型暴雨事件,由5种云微物理方案、3种积云对流方案、RRTM长波辐射方案、Dudhia短波辐射方案、YSU边界层方案和Noah陆面方案组合的15种物理参数组合方案,系统分析不同参数化方案组合对降水时空特征的模拟能力,并优选物理参数化方案,构建适用于研究区的WRF模式,提高模拟精度。研究结果表明:WRF模式能够较好地再现降水时空变化特征,但强降水时段存在超前现象,且降水模拟值普遍偏低,每小时降水量的平均绝对误差范围为-0.62~-0.12 mm,48 h累积降水量空间分布的相对误差范围为-66.90%~16.75%;WSM6-GD-Noah-RRTM/Dudhia(A5)方案综合表现最佳,其48 h累积降水量模拟相对误差仅为2.79%,对大雨和暴雨量级模拟的平均TS评分最高,达到0.26,尤其是暴雨中心降水量值显著优于其他方案;A5方案模拟的降水特征与实况最为吻合,为提升该区域气象模拟精度和防灾减灾提供了重要的理论支持。
英文摘要:
      To enhance the accuracy of heavy rainfall simulation and prediction in Wanzhou section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, we employed the mesoscale weather research and forecasting (WRF) model along with FNL reanalysis data for the prediction. 15 physical parameterization scheme combinations were designed by integrating five cloud microphysics schemes, three cumulus convection schemes, the RRTM/Dudhia longwave and shortwave radiation schemes, the YSU planetary boundary layer scheme, and the Noah land surface scheme. We systematically analyzed the performance of different parameterization scheme combinations in the simulation of spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation and identified the optimal scheme, aiming to develop a WRF model suitable for the study area with high simulation accuracy. The results show that the WRF model can reasonably reproduce the spatial and temporal variations in precipitation; however, it exhibits a tendency of predicting an earlier onset of heavy rainfall and generally underestimates precipitation amounts. The mean hourly precipitation bias ranges from -0.62 to -0.12 mm, while the relative error in the spatial distribution of 48-hour accumulated precipitation lies between -66.90% and 16.75%. Among all the scheme combinations, the WSM6-GD-Noah-RRTM / Dudhia scheme (A5) demonstrated the best overall performance, with a simulation relative error of only 2.79% for the 48-hour accumulated precipitation. Moreover, it achieved the highest average threat score (TS) of 0.26 for heavy and torrential rainfall and showed a significantly improved simulation of rainfall intensity at the storm center compared to other combinations. The precipitation characteristics simulated by scheme A5 closely aligned with the observed data, indicating the suitability of this scheme for simulating precipitation in this region. These findings can contribute valuable insights into meteorological modeling and disaster prevention and mitigation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.
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