文章摘要
方陈卓, 王海鹏, 吴龙华, 杨校礼, 邓西平, 武煜伦, 张广明, 李喜元.基于M-DGM(1,1)模型的东江河流系统健康评估Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2024,35(2):32-39
基于M-DGM(1,1)模型的东江河流系统健康评估
Health assessment of the Dongjiang River system based on the M-DGM(1,1) model
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.02.04
中文关键词: 河流系统健康  预测  灰色理论  M-DGM(1,1)  东江
英文关键词: health of river system  prediction  grey theory  M-DGM(1,1)  the Dongjiang River
基金项目:江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20230099)
Author NameAffiliation
FANG Chenzhuo1, WANG Haipeng2, WU Longhua1, YANG Xiaoli1, DENG Xiping3, WU Yulun1, ZHANG Guangming1, LI Xiyuan1 (1.河海大学 水利水电学院 江苏 南京 210098 2.南京水利科学研究院 江苏 南京 2100293.中国电建集团中南勘测设计研究院有限公司 湖南 长沙 410014) 
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中文摘要:
      东江作为广东省和香港特别行政区的重要水源地,直接关系着珠三角地区的经济发展以及香港特区的繁荣稳定。为有效掌握东江河流系统健康状况的发展趋势,促进东江流域内经济社会的可持续发展,针对东江河流系统健康评分(2015—2019年)的振荡分布特性,基于灰色预测理论,结合等维灰数动态递补模型,构建了M-DGM(1,1)灰色预测模型,并利用该模型对东江河流系统(2020—2024年)的健康状况进行了评估。结果表明:该预测模型精度达到一级,可满足东江河流系统健康状况评估的要求;东江河流系统健康在2020—2024年间仍处于亚健康状态,但总体向着健康方向发展;部分敏感警兆指标评分(2020—2024年)发生波动,要继续加强对东江河流系统健康的保护与管理。
英文摘要:
      As an important water source for Guangdong Province and Hong Kong area, Dongjiang River is directly related to the economic development of the Pearl River Delta region and the prosperity and stability of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. In order to grasp the development trend of the health status of the Dongjiang River system and promote sustainable development of the economic society in Dongjiang River Basin, regarding to the oscillatory distribution characteristics of Dongjiang River system health scores (2015—2019), a M-DGM(1,1) grey prediction model was constructed based on the grey predicting theory and the gray recurrence dynamic model with equal dimension to assess the future health status of the river system (2020—2024). The results show that the accuracy of the prediction model can reach the first level, and the model can meet the requirements of health assessment of the Dongjiang River system. It is found that the health status of the Dongjiang River system is in the sub-healthy state during 2020—2024, but the overall development is improving towards healthy. The scores of some sensitive warning indices (2020—2024) fluctuated, so it is necessary to strengthen the protection and management of the health of the Dongjiang River system.
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