文章摘要
秦欢欢, 黄丽想.基于SD模型的张掖盆地水资源生态足迹核算与预测Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2024,35(1):37-46
基于SD模型的张掖盆地水资源生态足迹核算与预测
Calculation and prediction of water resources eco-footprint in Zhangye Basin based on SD model
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2024.01.05
中文关键词: 水资源生态足迹  水资源生态承载力  可持续水资源利用  系统动力学  SD模型  张掖盆地
英文关键词: water resources eco-footprint  water resources biocapacity  sustainable water resources utilization  system dynamics(SD)  SD model  the Zhangye Basin
基金项目:东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016104)
Author NameAffiliation
QIN Huanhuan1,2, HUANG Lixiang2 (1.东华理工大学 核资源与环境国家重点实验室 江西 南昌 330013 2.东华理工大学 水资源与环境工程学院 江西 南昌 330013) 
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中文摘要:
      根据水资源生态足迹模型,通过构建张掖盆地水资源利用SD模型,设计5类不同情景来核算和预测现状(2000—2020年)和未来(2021—2050年)张掖盆地水资源生态足迹和生态承载力。结果表明:对于现状,人均水资源生态足迹、生态承载力和生态盈亏均值分别为3.517、0.272和-3.245 hm2/人,水资源生态压力指数和生态足迹强度均值分别为12.969和2.822 hm2/104元;农业用水在张掖盆地水资源生态足迹核算中占绝对优势但占比在下降,农业领域是节水的重点且潜能较大;水资源生态足迹强度明显下降(降幅90.21%),证明了张掖盆地用水效率的上升;张掖盆地的水资源利用压力较大。平均而言,预测期内张掖盆地不同情景中人均水资源生态足迹均大于人均水资源生态承载力,由此导致人均水资源生态亏损的出现;各情景下水资源生态压力指数和生态足迹强度均值分别为12.932、13.483、10.055、12.698和9.846及0.281、0.206、0.201、0.281和0.196 hm2/104元,未来时间里张掖盆地的水资源利用仍然处于不安全的状态。2021—2050年张掖盆地无法有效缓解水资源利用紧张的状况,需采用经济发展与水资源保护兼顾的发展方案,推荐政府部门采用情景ZS5。因此,张掖盆地未来水资源利用需要全社会、各部门的通力合作,不断提高水资源利用效率,大力推进节约用水措施和技术的普及与应用,才能确保水资源的可持续利用。
英文摘要:
      According to the water resources eco-footprint model, the SD (system dynamics) model of water resources utilization of the Zhangye Basin (hereinafter referred to as ZB) is constructed, with which five different scenarios are designed to evaluate and predict the water resources eco-footprint and biocapacity of status quo (2000-2020) and future (2021-2050) in ZB. The results show that as for status quo, the average values of per capita water resources eco-footprint, biocapacity and ecological gains and losses are 3.517, 0.272 and -3.245 hm2/capita, and the average values of water resources ecological stress index and eco-footprint intensity are 12.969 and 2.822 hm2/104 RMB, respectively. The agricultural water use occupies an dominant portion in the calculation of the water resources eco-footprint in ZB, but the proportion is decreasing. Therefore, the focus of water conservation in ZB lays in the agricultural field, as it has a great water-saving potential. The eco-footprint intensity of water resources shows a significant downward trend, with a drop rate of 90.21%, indicating that the water resources utilization efficiency in ZB is improving; however, its water resources utilization pressure is relatively high. On average, the per capita ecological footprint of water resources in different scenarios of the ZB during the prediction period is greater than the per capita ecological carrying capacity of water resources, resulting in ecological losses of per capita water resources. The average values of water resources ecological stress index and eco-footprint intensity under the five scenarios are 12.932, 13.483, 10.055, 12.698 and 9.846, and 0.281, 0.206, 0.201, 0.281 and 0.196 hm2/104 RMB, respectively. In the future, the water resources utilization in ZB will still in an unsafe situation. From 2021 to 2050, the ZB cannot effectively alleviate the shortage of water resource utilization, and a development plan that balances economic development and water resources protection needs to be adopted. It is recommended that the relevant government departments should adopt scenario ZS5. In the future, the development of water resources utilization in ZB requires the joint efforts of all society and various departments. Continuous improvement of water resources utilization, vigorous promotion of the popularization and application of water conservation measures and technologies are the key to the sustainability of water resources utilization.
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