文章摘要
龚成麒, 董晓华, 魏 冲, 欧阳习军, 吴寒雨.1978-2018年青藏高原降水区划及各区降水量时空演变特征Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2022,33(5):96-108
1978-2018年青藏高原降水区划及各区降水量时空演变特征
Precipitation division of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1978 to 2018 and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of each zone
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.05.12
中文关键词: 降水区划  降水量时空演变  气候变化  旋转经验正交函数  突变检验  小波分析  青藏高原
英文关键词: precipitation division  spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation  climate change  rotating empirical orthogonal function (REOF)  abrupt change test  wavelet analysis  the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
基金项目:欧洲空间局、中国国家遥感中心项目(58516); 中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司项目(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02-09)
Author NameAffiliation
GONG Chengqi1,2,3, DONG Xiaohua1,2,3, WEI Chong1,2,3, OUYANG Xijun1,2,3, WU Hanyu1,2,3 (1.三峡大学 水利与环境学院 湖北 宜昌 443002 2.三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心湖北 宜昌 443002 3.水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心 湖北 武汉 430072) 
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中文摘要:
      针对全球气候变化对区划降水时空演变动态影响的问题,选取青藏高原内部及周边85个气象站点1978-2018年共41 a的日降水资料,采用经验正交函数(EOF)、旋转经验正交函数(REOF)、Sen’s斜率估计、滑动t检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了青藏高原年降水量典型分布型以及区域降水量的时空演变特征。结果表明:1978-2018年青藏高原整体年降水量主要存在南北差异、东南-西北差异两种典型分布型,且存在以雅鲁藏布江下游、澜沧江下游以及川西为中心逐渐向四周减少的干湿差异性。采用REOF将青藏高原分为8个降水区,Ⅴ区、Ⅵ区的降水量呈减少趋势,减幅分别为1.5%、3.7%,Ⅳ区的降水量变化平稳,Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区、Ⅲ区、Ⅶ区和Ⅷ区的降水量呈增多趋势,增幅分别为 8.6%、28.3%、10.0%、3.8%和6.0%。青藏高原西北干旱地区和北部干旱地区的降水量有增加趋势,形成喀喇昆仑山脉地区、柴达木盆地地区、四川西部地区、高原东南地区和羌塘高原地区5个降水异常区。8个降水量分区的年平均降水量有多个突变年份,各区有着不同程度的年代际变化以及不同时间尺度的周期特征。
英文摘要:
      Aiming at the dynamic impact of global climate change on the spatial and temporal evolution of precipitation, the daily precipitation data of 85 meteorological stations in and around the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 41 a from 1978 to 2018 were selected to analyze the typical distribution types of annual precipitation and regional spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation of the plateau using empirical orthogonal function (EOF), rotating empirical orthogonal function (REOF), Sen’s slope estimation, sliding t-test and Morlet wavelet analysis. The results show that the overall annual precipitation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau mainly presented two typical distribution types, which are north-south difference and southeast-northwest difference, and there was a dry-wet difference that gradually decreased around the center composed of the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the lower reaches of the Lancang River and western Sichuan. REOF was then used to divide the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau into eight geographic zones, the precipitation in zone Ⅴ and Ⅵ showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 1.5% and 3.7%, respectively; whereas the precipitation in Zone Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅶ and Ⅷ showed an upward trend, with an increase of 8.6%, 28.3%, 10%, 3.8%, and 6%, respectively. The precipitation in the northwestern and northern arid regions of the plateau showed an increasing trend, forming five abnormal precipitation areas in the Karakoram Mountains, the Qaidam Basin, the western Sichuan, the southeastern plateau and the Qiangtang Plateau. The annual average precipitation in the eight zones presented multiple abrupt change years, and each zone showed different degrees of interdecadal variation and periodicity on different time scales.
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