文章摘要
肖 洁, 温天福, 蔡付林, 刘 鑫.水资源刚性约束下新余市水资源承载力系统动力学仿真分析Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2022,33(5):62-71
水资源刚性约束下新余市水资源承载力系统动力学仿真分析
System dynamics simulation analysis of water resources carrying capacity in Xinyu City under the rigid constraint of water resources
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.05.08
中文关键词: 水资源承载力  系统动力学  水资源刚性约束  仿真分析  新余市
英文关键词: water resources carrying capacity  system dynamics  rigid constraint of water resources  simulation analysis  Xinyu City
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(52169001); 江西省水利科技项目(201821ZDKT07)
Author NameAffiliation
XIAO Jie1,2, WEN Tianfu1,3,4, CAI Fulin2, LIU Xin1,3,4 (1.江西省水利科学院 江西 南昌 330029 2.河海大学 水利水电学院 江苏 南京 210024 3.水利部鄱阳湖水资源水生态环境研究中心 江西 南昌 330029 4.江西省鄱阳湖水资源与环境重点实验室 江西 南昌 330029) 
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中文摘要:
      加强水资源刚性约束可有效提升区域水资源对社会经济的支撑能力。以新余市为例,充分考虑工业产业特色,建立面向水资源刚性约束要求的系统动力学仿真模型,预测2020-2035年现状延续型、经济发展型、资源节约型和刚性约束型4种方案下当地水资源承载力变化。结果表明:在落实水资源刚性约束制度下,刚性约束型方案更注重工业用水的高效利用,尤其是钢铁、光伏等高污染、高耗水等工业。该方案下2035年水资源供需比β2035为1.03,COD污染比α12035和氨氮污染比α22035均大于1,可承载总人口数为130.2×104,可承载GDP规模为5 578.6×108元。本文运用系统动力学模型,同时考虑用水效率高效利用和社会经济合理发展的刚性约束型方案,可获得区域水资源供需平衡并达到较大的承载能力,以期为新余市有效落实水资源刚性约束制度提供技术支撑。
英文摘要:
      Strengthening the rigid constraint of water resources can effectively improve the performance of water resources in the regional socio-economic development. Taking Xinyu City as an example, a system dynamics simulation model for the rigid constraint requirements of water resources is established considering local industrial characteristics, then it is used to predict the changing process of local water resources carrying capacity from 2020 to 2035 under four schemes (i.e. the current situation, the economic development, the resource conservation, the rigid constraint). The results show that, under the scheme of rigid constraint of water resources, the efficient water utilization of industries are emphasized, especially industries with high water pollution and consumption such as steel and photovoltaic, and the supply-demand ratio of water resources will be 1.03 in 2035, while the pollution ratio of both COD and ammonia nitrogen will be greater than 1. By 2035, the carrying capacity of total population and GDP in Xinyu City can reach 1.302×106 and 557.86×109 yuan, respectively. In this paper, with the help of the system dynamics model, the rigid constraint scheme which considers the water efficiency and socio-economic development can realize the balance between regional water supply and demand with maximized carrying capacity of water resources. This study aims to provide an effective support for the implementation of the rigid constraint of water resources in Xinyu City.
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