文章摘要
刘 静, 靳莉君, 王 鹏.2021年黄河流域极端秋雨与大气环流和海温的关系Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2022,33(5):36-44
2021年黄河流域极端秋雨与大气环流和海温的关系
Relationship between extreme autumn rainfall, atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in the Yellow River Basin in 2021
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.05.05
中文关键词: 极端秋雨  雨量  雨日  大气环流  海温异常  标准差  黄河流域
英文关键词: extreme autumn rainfall  precipitation  rainy day  atmospheric circulation  sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly  standard deviation  the Yellow River Basin
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42171024)
Author NameAffiliation
LIU Jing, JIN Lijun, WANG Peng (黄河水利委员会 水文局 河南 郑州 450004) 
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中文摘要:
      为探究2021年黄河流域秋雨的异常特征及其成因,利用黄河流域232个测站逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析数据集和英国气象局Hadley中心月平均海温资料等,分析了2021年黄河流域秋雨的极端性,并进一步与秋雨异常偏多年的环流背景和海温异常特征进行了对比。结果表明:2021年黄河流域秋雨较常年异常偏多,偏离气候态近8σ,全流域有62.5%的站点累积雨量大小位列历史同期前5,37.9%的站点位列第1,表现出显著的极端性。巴尔喀什湖低槽底部分裂短波槽东移南下,与西太平洋副热带高压西北侧的西南气流交汇于黄河流域南部,造成2021年秋雨异常偏多;与其余秋雨异常年相比,2021年副高面积偏大、强度偏强、西伸脊点偏西,印缅槽强度则偏弱。2021年秋季,北太平洋海温较气候态偏高3.6σ,异常度位居秋雨异常年首位,其通过引起副高的异常响应造成极端秋雨的发生。本研究可为黄河流域秋雨预测提供参考。
英文摘要:
      In order to explore the characteristics and causes of the abnormal autumn rainfall in the Yellow River Basin in 2021, we analyzed the extreme autumn rainfall of 2021 and investigated the circulation background and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly characteristics of the years with extreme autumn rainfalls using daily precipitation data of 232 stations in the Yellow River Basin, monthly reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR and monthly SST of the Hadley Center, United Kingdom Meteorological Office. The results show that the autumn rainfall in the Yellow River Basin in 2021 was abnormally more abundant than usual, deviating from the climatic state by nearly 8 standard deviations. Accumulated rainfall of 62.5% of the stations ranked among the top five in the same period of history, and 37.9% ranked first, showing significant extremities. This is because the short wave troughs that split from the bottom of the low trough of Balkhash Lake moved eastward and southward, and converged with the southwest airflow of the northwest side of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) in the south of the Yellow River Basin, resulting in abnormally more abundant autumn rainfall in 2021. Compared with the other years with extreme autumn rainfalls, the area, intensity and west ridge point of WPSH in 2021 were especially larger, stronger and more to the west, while the intensity of Indian Burma trough was weaker. The SST in the North Pacific in autumn of 2021 was 3.6 standard deviations higher than the climatic state and the abnormal degree ranked first among years with extreme autumn rainfalls. The abnormal SST caused the extreme autumn rainfall through the abnormal response of WPSH. This study can provide a reference for autumn rainfall prediction in the Yellow River Basin.
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