文章摘要
时延锋, 李福孟, 王志峰, 李炳旭, 张志斌, 李福林.1961-2020年沂蒙山区极端降水时空变化特征Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2022,33(5):17-26
1961-2020年沂蒙山区极端降水时空变化特征
Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in Yimeng Mountain Area from 1961-2020
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.05.03
中文关键词: 极端降水  极端降水指数  时空变化特征  沂蒙山区
英文关键词: extreme precipitation  extreme precipitation index  spatiotemporal variation characteristics  Yimeng Mountain Area
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42007176); 山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2020QD25)
Author NameAffiliation
SHI Yanfeng1, LI Fumeng2, WANG Zhifeng1, LI Bingxu1, ZHANG Zhibin1, LI Fulin3 (1. 山东建筑大学 市政与环境工程学院 山东 济南 250101
2.济南城建集团有限公司山东 济南 250000
3.山东省水利科学研究院山东 济南 250014) 
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中文摘要:
      基于1961-2020年20个国家级气象站日降水数据,通过选取9个极端降水指数,利用5 a滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall法和累积距平法、Morlet 小波变换法、泰森多边形法及克里金空间插值等方法,分析了研究区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:研究区1 d最大降水量、5 d最大降水量和降水强度呈上升趋势,大雨日数、年降水量、强降水量、极强降水量、连续干旱日数及连续湿润日数呈不显著下降趋势;年降水量与大雨日数的突变情况类似,1980年后下降趋势明显,降水强度在1998年发生突变,突变之后变为增强趋势;各极端降水指数基本存在20 a左右的第一主周期;空间分布上,除连续干旱日数与降水强度外,其他7个指数空间分布相似,基本呈现从东南向西北减少的分布格局,连续干旱日数整体呈现从东到西递减的趋势,降水强度整体呈现南高北低的趋势;1980-2000年为降水异常年份多发时段,1964、2003和2020年为降水量典型异常偏高年份。研究结果可为沂蒙山区水资源规划、防灾减灾等提供理论和数据支撑。
英文摘要:
      Based on the daily precipitation data from 20 national meteorological stations in Yimeng Mountain Area (from 1961 to 2020), nine extreme precipitation indices were selected to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation with the methods of 5-year sliding average, Mann-Kendall test, cumulative anomaly, Morlet wavelet transform, Tyson polygon and Kriging interpolation. The results showed that the Rx1day, Rx5day and SDⅡ showed a increasing trend, whereas the Rr25, PRCRTOT, R95P, R99P, CDD and CWD showed a non-significant downward trend. The abrupt changes of PRCRTOT and Rr25 were similar, and their downward trend was obvious after 1980. The SDⅡ had undergone a significant abrupt change in 1998, which presented an upward trend after the abrupt change. All the extreme precipitation indices basically had the first main cycle of 20 a. In spatial distributions, except for the CDD and SDⅡ, the spatial distribution of the other 7 indices was similar, which showed a decreasing pattern from southeast to northwest. The CDD decreased from east to west, and the SDⅡ showed a trend of higher in south and lower in north. The anomalous years often occurred during 1980 to 2000, and the precipitation was typically abnormally high in 1964, 2003 and 2020. The research results can provide a theoretical and statistical support for water resources planning, disaster prevention and reduction in Yimeng Mountain Area.
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