Mineral water resources are abundant on the northern slope of Changbai Mountain in Jilin Province. Finding out the water conservation potential of this area is crucial to the rational development of mineral water resources. InVEST model is used to calculate water conservation and the impact factors, and Logistic model and ecological base flow theory are adopted to calculate and evaluate the development threshold of mineral water. The results show that the total amount of water conservation in the northern slope of Changbai Mountain increased from 1.4×109 m3 in 2000 to 1.68×109 m3 in 2020. Climate is the main influencing factor of water conservation, controlling 88.2% of the study area; however, climate and land use jointly promoted the increase of water conservation in the areas with increased vegetation coverage. The recommended ecological base flow is 1.014-1.244 m3/s, and the recommended mining coefficients for the source area and middle & lower reaches of the river are 0.36-0.46 and 0.4-0.5, respectively. At present, the exploitation degree of mineral water is far below the threshold value, so the mining can be continued. In this paper, the relationship between water conservation and mineral water is clarified, vast forest area cultivated a large amount of water resources, and high water conservation can ensure the quantity and quality of mineral water, which is suitable for development and utilization. The demarcation of development threshold is conducive to the sustainable development of mineral water. The research results will have positive significance for the ecological protection of Changbai Mountain and the development and utilization of mineral water.