文章摘要
吴绍飞, 罗 文, 熊凡迪, 欧阳芬, 黄彬彬.鄱阳湖修河虬津水文站非一致性设计洪水研究Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2022,33(3):20-26
鄱阳湖修河虬津水文站非一致性设计洪水研究
Non stationary design flood analysis of the Qiujin Hydrological Station in the Xiuhe River Basin, Poyang Lake
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.03.03
中文关键词: 非一致性条件下设计洪水对水利工程的规划设计及防洪决策等具有重要意义。针对传统时变矩法求得每年一个非一致性设计洪水值难于直接应用到工程实际的不足,考虑影响径流的两项气象因素(降水量和气温),并结合重现期的期望超过次数概念,选取修河虬津水文站1956-2014年年最大1、3、7、15 d和1个月的洪水系列,结合大气环流模式输出的降水量、气温统计降尺度成果,推求非一致性条件下虬津水文站多时间尺度下的设计洪水流量值,并与传统的不考虑系列非一致性的设计结果进行对比。结果表明:虬津站各时间尺度洪水流量系列位置参数均存在显著的非一致性。一致性条件下设计洪水流量和以气象因子为协变量的非一致性设计洪水流量存在显著差异,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,各时间尺度20 和50 a重现期非一致性设计洪水流量值与一致性设计值相比分别减小了13.5%~32.6%(平均约26.4%)和15.3%~39.1%(平均约31.0%)。研究结果可为区域洪水灾害防治和洪水资源利用提供一定参考。
英文关键词: design flood  non-stationary  generalized additive models for location scale and shape (GAMLSS) model  expected number of exceedances (ENE)  general circulation model (GCM)  Qiujin Hydrological station  the Xiuhe River Basin, Poyang Lake
基金项目:江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ190943、GJJ190973);国家自然科学基金项目(51969016);江西省科技厅重点计划项目(20192ACBL21044);南昌工程学院大学生创新创业训练计划项目
Author NameAffiliation
WU Shaofei, LUO Wen, XIONG Fandi, OUYANG Fen, HUANG Binbin (南昌工程学院 鄱阳湖流域水工程安全与资源高效利用国家地方联合工程实验室 江西 南昌 330099) 
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中文摘要:
      非一致性条件下设计洪水对水利工程的规划设计及防洪决策等具有重要意义。针对传统时变矩法求得每年一个非一致性设计洪水值难于直接应用到工程实际的不足,考虑影响径流的两项气象因素(降水量和气温),并结合重现期的期望超过次数概念,选取修河虬津水文站1956-2014年年最大1、3、7、15 d和1个月的洪水系列,结合大气环流模式输出的降水量、气温统计降尺度成果,推求非一致性条件下虬津水文站多时间尺度下的设计洪水流量值,并与传统的不考虑系列非一致性的设计结果进行对比。结果表明:虬津站各时间尺度洪水流量系列位置参数均存在显著的非一致性。一致性条件下设计洪水流量和以气象因子为协变量的非一致性设计洪水流量存在显著差异,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,各时间尺度20 和50 a重现期非一致性设计洪水流量值与一致性设计值相比分别减小了13.5%~32.6%(平均约26.4%)和15.3%~39.1%(平均约31.0%)。研究结果可为区域洪水灾害防治和洪水资源利用提供一定参考。
英文摘要:
      The determination of the non-stationary design flood is an integral part of the planning and designing of water conservancy projects, as well as the decision-making of flood control. Aiming at the disadvantages of limited application of the annual non-stationary value obtained by the conventional time-varying moment method, we employed the expected number of exceedances (ENE) of return period to investigate the non-stationary design flood of the Qiujin Hydrological Station in the Xiuhe River Basin with the consideration of meteorological factors of precipitation and air temperature derived from the downscaled general circulation model (GCM). The flood series of annual maximum 1-day, annual maximum consecutive 3-day, 7-day, 15-day and annual maximum 1-month of the Qiujin Hydrological Station from 1956 to 2014 were analysed to obtain the non-stationary design flood of multiple time scales, which were then compared with those of the conventional method. Results showed that the location parameter of all the above five series suffered from significant non-stationarity; the design flood values were of great difference between the stationary models and the non-stationary models with precipitation and temperature as covariates. Particularly, at the return periods of 20 a and 50 a of each time scale, the non-stationary design values reduced by about 13.5%-32.6% (about 26.4% average) and 15.3%-39.1% (about 31.0% average) under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, compared with the stationary ones. This research may provide a contribution to the regional flood disaster prevention and the reuse of flood resources.
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