文章摘要
宋益涛, 王双涛, 罗平平, 查显宝, 徐承毅, 曹 哲, 朱 伟.变化环境下径流演变的研究方法进展Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2022,33(2):68-76
变化环境下径流演变的研究方法进展
Advances in research methods of runoff evolution under changing environment
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.02.09
中文关键词: 径流演变  变化环境  定量分析  气候模型  可能影响  不确定性
英文关键词: runoff evolution  changing environment  quantitative analysis  climate model  possible impact  uncertainty
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFE0103800); 京都大学防灾研究所国际合作研究项目(2019W-02)
Author NameAffiliation
SONG Yitao1,2, WANG Shuangtao1,2, LUO Pingping1,2, ZHA Xianbao1,2, XU Chengyi1,2, CAO Zhe1,2, ZHU Wei1,2 (1.长安大学 水利与环境学院 陕西 西安 710054 2.长安大学 旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室 陕西 西安 710054) 
Hits: 1493
Download times: 427
中文摘要:
      气候变化和人类活动的双重影响使流域天然径流序列发生时空演变。对变化环境背景下径流序列演变规律、驱动因素的研究及在不同气候模式下对未来径流的预估对流域水资源管理和长期规划具有重要意义。为此对当前变化环境下径流演变趋势检验、径流变化归因分析及未来径流趋势预估的相关研究方法进行了全面的回顾,并进行综合对比分析。结果表明:采用多种检验方法组合优于单一检验,其结果更为可靠;气候变化和人类活动影响程度在不同流域、不同时期差异较大;未来径流预估结果的不确定性源于气候模式、水文模型和降尺度方法等多个方面。研究结果可为变化环境下径流演变及其驱动因素的研究提供新思路和科学参考。
英文摘要:
      Affected by the dual effects of climate change and human activities, the natural runoff series of river basins are experiencing spatial-temporal evolution. The study on the evolution of runoff series and its driving factors under the changing environment and the prediction of future runoff under different climate modes are of great significance to water resources management and long-term planning of river basins. The comprehensive and comparative study on the relevant research methods are carried out under the current changing environment, including the test of runoff evolution trend, the attribution analysis of runoff variation and prediction of future runoff trend. The results show that the combination of multiple test methods is better than any individual test, and the results of the combined test methods are more reliable. The impacts of climate change and human activities vary greatly in different river basins and different periods. The uncertainty of future runoff prediction results is caused by the choice of climate model, hydrological model and down-scaling method etc. The results can provide some new ideas and scientific references for the study of runoff evolution and driving factors under changing environment.
View Full Text   View/Add Comment  Download reader
Close
function PdfOpen(url){ var win="toolbar=no,location=no,directories=no,status=yes,menubar=yes,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes"; window.open(url,"",win); } function openWin(url,w,h){ var win="toolbar=no,location=no,directories=no,status=no,menubar=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=no,width=" + w + ",height=" + h; controlWindow=window.open(url,"",win); } &et=B75D4BFAB4B08A1B6C599578278444EE553999CB1FA07EA48FEAA8957B3B6A2F0AD65F695F6E6990068B1ABEEFF2FB4EBC78C8B0BA8761A9CBBB7319AC93D5C1474440FD145D92D06A7C4072608E0915&pcid=5B3AB970F71A803DEACDC0559115BFCF0A068CD97DD29835&cid=3ECA06F115476E3F&jid=BC473CEDCB8CE70D7B12BDD8EA00FF44&yid=885CEFEC57DA488F&aid=A56B3CA7634AD2B7966369B00CC03A5A&vid=&iid=0B39A22176CE99FB&sid=68D88C2FCF9C3098&eid=228A710F49B6CE58&fileno=20220209&flag=1&is_more=0">