The risk rate analysis model of concrete dams is usually used for one dimensional time series of individual monitoring points based on the structure limit state function, without considering the correlation and multicollinearity between deformation monitoring points. Based on the prototype monitoring data, considering the correlation of all monitoring points in each partition and the synergy of the deformation in different partitions, the panel data theory is introduced for the cluster partition of the monitoring points of ultra high arch dams, and the calculation method of real time single monitoring point risk rate of ultra high arch dam deformation partition is proposed based on the estimated single monitoring point risk rate function. Then the overall real time risk rate analysis model of ultra high arch dams based on prototype monitoring data is further constructed combined with Copula function. The case analysis shows that the constructed model establishes the functional relationship between the actual deformation effect and the risk rate based on the dam long time series monitoring data. It can effectively analyze the deformation risk rate of each partition and the whole dam, and can objectively describe the basic law of the overall risk rate change of ultra high arch dams.