Based on the DPSIRM model and combined with the status quo of Taiyuan’s water resources, six subsystems including driving force, pressure, status, impact, response, and management are constructed, from which 15 evaluation indicators are selected, and then the entropy TOPSIS evaluation model is used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Taiyuan City from 2011 to 2018. At the same time, the obstacle degree model is adopted to analyze the key factors affecting the carrying capacity of water resources. The results show that during the study period, the water resources carrying capacity of Taiyuan City was overloaded from 2011 to 2012 and improved to the critical point of overloading from 2013 to 2018. The rapid increase in the water resources carrying capacity of Taiyuan City from 2015 to 2018 was mainly due to the improvement of status and management subsystems. there is still much room for improvement in the two indicators of urban per capita domestic water consumption and groundwater overexploitation coefficient in the future.