文章摘要
叶 飞, 方国华, 金菊良.基于灰色聚类集对分析法的水资源承载力评价模型Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2020,31(3):30-36
基于灰色聚类集对分析法的水资源承载力评价模型
Evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on grey cluster set pair analysis method
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2020.03.05
中文关键词: 水资源承载力  灰色聚类  集对分析  博弈论  安徽省
英文关键词: carrying capacity of water resources  grey cluster  set pair analysis  game theory  Anhui Province
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliation
YE Fei1, FANG Guohua1, JIN Juliang2 (1.河海大学 水利水电学院 江苏 南京 210098 2.合肥工业大学 土木与水利工程学院 安徽 合肥 230009) 
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中文摘要:
      水资源承载力是评价区域水资源可持续利用的一项重要指标,为定量评价区域水资源承载力,建立了以水资源-社会-经济-生态环境系统为基础的多层次评价体系。考虑到传统集对分析(SPA)模型的不足,引入中心三角白化权函数构建灰色聚类集对分析模型,并利用博弈论确定指标权重。以安徽省为例验证了该评价模型的准确性和有效性,评价结果与实际情况基本一致,结果表明:2008-2013年安徽省水资源承载力评价等级为Ⅲ级,2014-2017年评价等级为Ⅱ级,水资源承载力得到了有效的改善。借助ArcGIS可视化功能实现安徽省16市的水资源承载力区域差异分析,安徽省水资源承载力南北差异较明显,南方水资源承载力较北方更优,这与水资源分布不均、社会发展模式不同和区域生态环境差异有关。为保障安徽省社会经济可持续发展,应结合区域自身发展特性以及生态环境现状,制定科学合理的水资源可持续利用方案。
英文摘要:
      Water resources carrying capacity is an important indicator for evaluating the sustainable use of regional water resources. To evaluate regional water resources carrying capacity quantitatively, a multi-level evaluation system was established based on water resources-society-economy-ecological environment system. Considering the shortcomings of the traditional set pair analysis (SPA) model, the grey cluster set pair analysis model was constructed by introducing the center triangle whitening weight function, and its index weights were determined by game theory. Anhui Province as an example was given to demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the evaluation model and the evaluation results were basically in accord with the actual situation. The results showed that water resources carrying capacity in Anhui province in 2008-2013 was evaluated as Class Ⅲ, and ClassⅡin 2014-2017, which indicates that the water resources carrying capacity in this area had been improved effectively. Based on ArcGIS visualization function, the regional difference analysis of water resources carrying capacity of 16 cities in Anhui Province was demonstrated. It shows that the north-south difference in Anhui Province was obvious, and the south water resources carrying capacity was better than that of the north, which is related to the uneven distribution of water resources, different social development patterns and regional ecological environment differences. For the sustainable development of social economy in Anhui Province, a suitable and applicable scheme of sustainable utilization of water resources should be formulated based on the characteristics of the regional development and the current situation of its ecological environment.
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