文章摘要
何朝飞, 陈伏龙, 张志君, 杨 宽, 何新林, 龙爱华.玛纳斯河流域上游融雪洪水序列变化特征分析Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2020,31(1):109-114
玛纳斯河流域上游融雪洪水序列变化特征分析
Analysis of variation characteristics of snowmelt flood sequence in the upper Manas River Basin
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2020.01.17
中文关键词: 融雪洪水  突变分析  变化特征  滑动平均  M-K检验  R/S分析  玛纳斯河流域
英文关键词: snowmelt flood  mutation analysis  variation characteristics  moving average  M-K testing  R/S analysis  Manas River Basin
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51769029); 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404301); 石河子大学高层次人才科研启动资金项目(RCZK2018C23)
Author NameAffiliation
HE Chaofei1, CHEN Fulong1, ZHANG Zhijun1, YANG Kuan1, HE Xinlin1, LONG Aihua1,2 (1.石河子大学 水利建筑工程学院 新疆 石河子 832000 2.中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室 北京 100038) 
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中文摘要:
      为了探究融雪洪水流域环境变化下的趋势性,以玛纳斯河流域上游肯斯瓦特水文站年融雪洪水序列为例,利用Pettitt法和里海哈林(Lee-Heghinian)法检验洪水峰量年际变化中的突变现象,利用R/S法探究序列变异程度,所得到的突变点将历年洪水过程划分为两个阶段,并采用了加权滑动平均法及Mann-Kendall法分析了洪水时间序列的趋势变化。结果表明:在人类活动及气候变化影响下,玛纳斯河流域1957-2014年洪水特征序列发生了中等变异,变异点前序列波动幅度较为明显,而变异点后整体变化呈下降趋势但并不显著。
英文摘要:
      In order to explore the trend of environmental changes under the snowmelt flood basin, the annual snowmelt flood sequence of the Ken Swart hydrologic station in the upper Manas River Basin was used as an example to test the interannual variation of peak volume by the Pettitt method and the Lee-Heghinian method. The mutation phenomenon was explored by R/S method, and the obtained mutation points divided the flood process into two stages. The weighted moving average method and Mann-Kendall method were used to analyze the trend of flood time series. The results showed that under the human activities and climate change, the flood signature sequence of the Manas River Basin has undergone moderate variation during 1957-2014, and the amplitude of the pre-mutation sequence is more obvious, while the overall change after the mutation point is decreasing but not significantly.
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