Land subsidence is one of the major engineering geological disasters in the world, while groundwater overexploitation is one of the main causes of land subsidence. In order to study the influence of artificial recharge and the termination of groundwater exploitation on land subsidence of Beijing plain, three scenarios of business as usual(BAU), artificial recharge(AR) and the termination of exploitation(TE) were designed to simulate the regional and central subsidence rate based on the 3D groundwater flow model and scenario analysis method. The results showed that the regional land subsidence rates under the scenarios of BAU, AR, and TE in the Beijing plain in 2015, 2020, and 2030 were about 24 mm/a, 12.7-23.2 mm/a, and 12.4-23.7 mm/a, respectively. The land subsidence rates at the subsidized centers in 2015, 2020, and 2030 were 39.30-158.62 mm/a, 21.09-165.83 mm/a, and 16.5-162.95 mm/a respectively. AR and TE played significant roles in promoting the recovery of groundwater level and aquifer storage as well as the control of land subsidence in the study area, but the effect of TE is better than that of AR. Only by comprehensively considering social and economic development and land subsidence control can the deterioration of land subsidence be controlled and the sustainable development of Beijing plain society be guaranteed.