水资源与水工程学报

文章摘要

林慧，王景才，黄金柏，蒋陈娟.基于SPI和SPEI的淮河中上游流域气象干旱时空分布特征对比研究Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2019,30(6):59-67

基于SPI和SPEI的淮河中上游流域气象干旱时空分布特征对比研究

Comparative study on spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of meteorological drought in the upper and middle reaches of Huai River Basin based on SPI and SPEI

DOI：10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2019.06.10

中文关键词: 气象干旱时空分布标准化降水指数标准化降水蒸散指数淮河流域

英文关键词: meteorological drought temporal and spatial distribution standardized precipitation index (SPI) standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) Huai River Basin

基金项目:江苏省高等学校自然科学研究项目（15KJB170019）；江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目（PAPD）；扬州大学科技创新培育基金（2016CXJ041）

Author Name	Affiliation
LIN Hui, WANG Jingcai, HUANG Jinbai, JIANG Chenjuan	（扬州大学水利科学与工程学院，江苏扬州 225009）

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中文摘要:

基于淮河流域1960-2017年逐月降水、气温资料，采用SPI、SPEI等干旱指数和线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall、小波分析等数学统计方法对年和四季气象干旱的趋势性、周期性及干旱频次进行时空分布特征的对比研究。结果表明：流域年、夏冬两季两种干旱指数呈微弱增加趋势，SPEI较SPI上升幅度略大，春秋两季均呈微弱减少趋势，SPEI较SPI下降幅度略大；研究时段内同一区域的两种干旱指数反映的干湿变化周期性基本一致；年尺度淮河以北SPEI显示中旱频次较多而SPI显示轻旱频次较多，其他时间尺度南北区域接近一致；两种干旱指数的空间变化趋势除夏季较为一致外，年、春秋两季在同一区域上SPEI显示的干旱化趋势较SPI略强，冬季SPI显示绝大部分区域呈湿润化趋势而SPEI呈干旱化趋势；两种指数在空间分布上存在一定程度的差异性，四季SPEI显示的干旱频次普遍比SPI统计的干旱频次高。研究结果对于干旱客观性评估和水旱灾害防治管理具有重要参考价值。

英文摘要:

This study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of annual and seasonal meteorological droughts using the drought indices of standardized precipitation index(SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI), and the mathematical statistical methods of linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis methods, based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of Huai River basin from 1960 to 2017. The results showed that: the annual, summer and winter drought index of the basin showed a slight increasing trend, and the SPEI increased slightly more than SPI. The spring and autumn drought index showed a slight decreasing trend, and the SPEI decreased slightly more than SPI. The two drought indices agreed well reflecting dry and wet cycles in the same area during the research period. In the annual scale, SPEI showed that the frequency of moderate drought was higher in the north area of Huai River, but SPI showed that the frequency of mild drought was higher. The different drought frequencies were similar in the northern and southern area in other time scales. The spatial variation trend of the two drought indices was similar except in summer. The drought trend of SPEI was slightly stronger than that of SPI in the same region in the year and spring and autumn seasons. SPI showed that most of the regions were wetter while SPEI showed a drought trend in winter. There were significant differences in spatial distribution between the two indices. The drought frequency shown by SPEI in four seasons was generally higher than that by SPI statistics. The results have important reference value for drought objectivity assessment and flood and drought disaster prevention and management.

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