Taking Baoji city as the research area and aiming at understanding the complexity of the human-water relationship in Baoji, this paper made a comprehensive evaluation of the water resource vulnerability from 1999 to 2015, predicted the future development trend, and found out the leading factors affecting the water resource vulnerability in baoji, so as to reduce the water resource vulnerability ability to provide reasonable solutions. Based on the DPSIR model, 19 indicators were chosen to reflect the brittleness of water resources in baoji. Relying on the advantages of combination of subjective and objective weighting by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method, and combining with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the comprehensive scores of various indicators were obtained. Using the S-type curve, the non-linear function relationship between water resource vulnerability and index comprehensive score was established, and the water resource vulnerability in the past 17 years was classified. The results showed that water resources in baoji city were in a weak position (level 4) overall, but the overall trend and future decline trend were obvious. Precipitation and industrial reuse water rate are the main factors; therefore, improving water resource management model is an important measure to reduce water resource vulnerability.