文章摘要
郑 炜.基于三角模型的城市水资源安全动态评价——以广州市为例Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2018,29(5):68-73
基于三角模型的城市水资源安全动态评价——以广州市为例
Dynamic evaluation on regional water resource security based ontrigonometric model:Taking Guangzhou as an example
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2018.05.11
中文关键词: 水资源安全  三角模型  动态评价  广州市
英文关键词: water resources security  triangle model  dynamic evaluation  Guangzhou City
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(91747208); 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2018B707X14)
Author NameAffiliation
ZHENG Wei (河海大学 商学院 江苏 南京 210000) 
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中文摘要:
      以广州市为研究对象,运用三角模型,建立评价指标体系,通过熵权法计算各指标的权重,分别计算得到水资源健康安全、水资源发展安全和水资源保障安全3组综合指数,在此基础上计算出各指标的影响度。从时间序列上对2010-2016年广州市水资源安全进行评价,并对其主要影响因子进行分析。结果表明:广州市水资源安全综合指数处于极安全-较安全之间。影响广州市水资源安全的限制性因子主要是居民可支配收入、三产总产值比例、城市化率。综上所述,广州市水资源现状为较安全,此研究将为改善城市水资源安全状况提供科学依据。
英文摘要:
      Taking Guangzhou as the research object, using the triangle model to establish the evaluation index system, the weight of each index is calculated by entropy weight method. The comprehensive index of water resources health and safety, water resources development and water resources security are calculated, respectively. The influence degree of each index is then calculated. We evaluated the water resources safety of Guangzhou from 2010 to 2016 from the time series and analyzed the main influencing factors. The results showed that the comprehensive index of water resources security in Guangzhou is a trend of strong safety to safety. The restrictive factors that affect the water resources security in Guangzhou are mainly the residents' disposable income, the total output value of the three gross output and the urbanization rate. To sum up, the current situation of water resources security in Guangzhou is relative safety. This research will provide a scientific basis for improving urban water resources security.
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