文章摘要
宋帆, 杨晓华, 武翡翡, 孙波扬, 耿雷华.灰色关联—集对聚类预测模型在吉林省用水量预测中的应用Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2018,29(3):28-33
灰色关联—集对聚类预测模型在吉林省用水量预测中的应用
Application of grey correlation degree-set pair analysis classified prediction method on water consumption prediction of Jilin Province
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2018.03.05
中文关键词: 用水量预测  灰色关联度  集对分析  聚类预测  联系度  吉林省
英文关键词: water consumption forecasting  grey correlation degree  set pair analysis  classified prediction  connection degree  Jilin Province
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0506603、2016YFC0401305);国家自然科学基金项目(41530635、51379013、51679007)
Author NameAffiliation
SONG Fan1, YANG Xiaohua1, WU Feifei1, SUN Boyang1, GENG Leihua2 (1.北京师范大学 环境学院 水环境模拟国家重点实验室 北京 100875 2.南京水利科学研究院 江苏 南京 210029) 
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中文摘要:
      对地区未来用水量进行预测对于实现水资源的合理规划与调度有着重要意义。为了对吉林省未用水量进行合理预测,建立了吉林省短期用水量预测的灰关联-集对聚类预测模型,并用吉林省实际用水量数据对模型进行了交叉精度检验。结果发现:该模型对吉林省2015用水量预测结果与实际数据的相对误差为2.00%,预测精度好于灰色预测模型和BP神经网络模型。20年数据检验平均误差为2.675%,预测效果较好,可用于区域未来用水量预测。根据此模型以及吉林省发展规划,2020年吉林省用水量将达到138.74×108 m3
英文摘要:
      Reasonable prediction of future water demand is of great significance to realize the rational planning and scheduling of water resources. In order to predict the short-term water consumption accurately in Jilin province, the grey correlation degree-set pair analysis classified prediction model(GCD-SPACPM) was set up. And the accuracy of the model prediction was cross-checked by the actual water consumption of Jilin Province. Results showed that the relative error of the prediction data to actual data in 2015 was 2.00%, indicating a better prediction than Grey Prediction model and BP neural network. The mean error of data inspection of two decades was 2.675%, the predicting effect was good and it can be used for the regional water consumption prediction. According to this model and the development plan, the amount of water consumption of Jilin Province will reach 13.84 billion cubic meters by 2020.
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