水资源与水工程学报

文章摘要

刘威，张行南，方园皓.饶河流域未来水资源量变化预测分析Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2017,28(3):15-19

饶河流域未来水资源量变化预测分析

Prediction and analysis of future water resources change in Raohe river basin

DOI：10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.03.04

中文关键词: 新安江模型 SDSM（Statistical Downscaling Model）水资源量饶河流域

英文关键词: Xin'anjiang model SDSM water resources Raohe River Basin

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（51420105014）；水利部公益性行业科研专项项目（201401034、2012AA12A309）；中国长江三峡集团公司资助项目（0799556）

Author Name	Affiliation
LIU Wei¹, ZHANG Xingnan^1,2,3, FANG Yuanhao¹	1．河海大学水文水资源学院，江苏南京 210098；2. 河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心，江苏南京 210098；3. 水安全与水科学协同创新中心，江苏南京 210098

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中文摘要:

利用景德镇气象站1961-2001年的实测降水、气温数据以及NCEP再分析数据，建立饶河流域降水、气温的SDSM统计降尺度模型；根据IPCC AR4排放情景特别报告中的A2和B2情景，对HADCM3输出数据进行降尺度处理，预测饶河流域未来时段(2010-2099年)的降水、气温变化情况；与新安江模型进行耦合，得到未来时段饶河流域的水资源量。结果表明：饶河流域未来水资源量持续减少，且A2情景比B2情景的降幅更大，至2080s时期（2070-2099年）昌江支流最大降幅可达31.01%。

英文摘要:

Based on the data of precipitation, temperature and NCEP reanalysis data of Jingdezhen meteorological station from 1961 to 2001, a statistical downscaling model of SDSM for precipitation and temperature in Raohe river basin was established; According to A2 and B2 scenarios of IPCC AR4 emission scenario special report, the output data of HADCM3 was downscaled to predict the precipitation and temperature change in the future period (2010-2099) in the Raohe River Basin; And coupled with the Xin'anjiang model to get the water resources of Raohe River Basin in the future period. The results show that the future water resources of the Raohe River Basin will decrease continuously, and the A2 scenario will have a larger decline than the B2 scenario, and the largest decline of Changjiang river in the period of 2080s（2070-2099） will reach 31.01%.

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