文章摘要
卢 迪, 周如瑞.耦合中期、长期径流预报的跨流域引水受水水库调度图研究Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2016,27(6):7-12
耦合中期、长期径流预报的跨流域引水受水水库调度图研究
Reservoir operation charts of inter-basin water transfer in intake area by coupling mid- and long-term runoff forecast
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2016.06.02
中文关键词: 跨流域引水  长期径流预报  中期径流预报  调度风险
英文关键词: inter-basin water transfer  long term runoff forecast  medium term runoff forecast  operation risk
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51379027);辽宁省自然科学基金项目(2015020608)
Author NameAffiliation
LU Di1, ZHOU Rurui2 (1.中国电建集团 华东勘测设计研究院有限公司 浙江 杭州 311122 2.大连理工大学 水利工程学院 辽宁 大连 116024) 
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中文摘要:
      针对跨流域引水工程受水水库如何提高引水有效性的问题,本文基于参数-模拟-优化模型(PSO),研究耦合中期、长期径流预报信息的跨流域引水受水水库调度图。结合碧流河水库实例研究,提出利用长期径流预报修正调度图引水上下限及采用“库容+中期径流预报”制定引水决策的方法。通过比较多种预报调度图的模拟结果及调度风险分析,论证耦合中期、长期径流预报调度图的合理性。结果表明:应用耦合长期、中期径流预报信息的调度图可有效减少跨流域引水量,提高水资源利用率,且相比仅考虑长期径流预报的调度图降低了缺水风险。
英文摘要:
      In order to improve the effectiveness of reservoir water diversion in intake area of inter-basin water transfer project, reservoir operation charts of inter-basin water transfer in intake area by coupling mid-and long-term runoff forecast were studied based on the parameter-simulation-optimization (PSO) model. Through the case study in the Biliuhe reservoir, the methods of employing long-term forecast to modify the upper and lower limitations of the water division rules, and “storage plus mid-term runoff forecast” were proposed. The different forecast operation methods were compared for the simulated results and operation risk analysis. The rationality of coupling the mid-term and long-term runoff forecast operation charts was analyzed. The results showed that the coupling mid-and long-term runoff forecast operation charts could reduce the inter-basin diverted water effectively, improve the utilization efficiency of water resources, and reduce the water shortage risks compared with the operation charts by only using long-term runoff forecast.
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