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文章摘要

严小林，张建云，鲍振鑫，王国庆，王小军.海河流域农业干旱演变情势分析Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2016,27(3):221-225

海河流域农业干旱演变情势分析

Analysis of evoluation of agricultural drought in Haihe River Basin

DOI：10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2016.03.44

英文关键词: agricultural drought trend of evoluation Haihe River basin

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41401023、41330854、41371063）； “十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目（2012BAC21B01、2012BAC19B03）

Author Name	Affiliation
YAN Xiaolin^1,2,3, ZHANG Jianyun^1,2,3, BAO Zhenxin^1,2,3, WANG Guoqing^1,2,3, WANG Xiaojun^1,2,3	（1.水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏南京 210029； 2.南京水利科学研究院，江苏南京 210029；3.水利部应对气候变化研究中心，江苏南京 210029）

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中文摘要:

以受旱率、成灾率和粮食减产率3个指标，利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法，分析了海河流域1949-2000年农业干旱的历史演变情势。结果表明：海河流域的农业干旱呈现出显著的增加趋势，达到了1%的显著性水平。其中，受旱率、成灾率和粮食减产率的增加速率分别为4.4%/10 a，2.4%/10 a和0.77%/10 a。总体而言，1980年是海河流域农业干旱的突变点。降水减少和温度上升是流域干旱加剧的重要原因。

英文摘要:

The paper used Mann-Kendall's trend test technique to analyze the situation of historical evoluation of agricultural drought in the Haihe River basin from 1949 to 2000 by use of three indexes such as drought, disaster and food production rate.The results indicated that there is a significant increasing trend for agricultural drought,and achieves significant level of 1%. The increasing rate of drought, disaster and grain reduction are 4.4% , 2.4% and 0.77% per 10 years respectively. The breakpoint of agricultural drought in the Haihe River basin is 1980.The decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature are the vital reason for intensifying basin drought.

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