文章摘要
焦伟杰, 龙海峰.基于自回归模型的分布式水文模型预报校正Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2015,26(2):103-108
基于自回归模型的分布式水文模型预报校正
Forecast and correction of distributed hydrological modelbased on auto-regression model
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.02.019
中文关键词: 降雨- 径流  分布式水文模型  自回归模型  实时校正  清江
英文关键词: rainfall-runoff  distributed hydrological model  autoregression model  real-time correction  the Qingjiang River
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliation
JIAO Weijie1, LONG Haifeng2 (1.武汉大学 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室 湖北 武汉 430072 2.湖北省电力勘测设计院 湖北 武汉 430040) 
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中文摘要:
      以清江水布垭上游流域为研究对象,利用1 km×1 km精度的数字高程模型(DEM)提取流域特征信息,采用基于DEM的分布式水文模型(DDRM)对清江流域进行降雨-径流模拟。由于分布式水文模型所需资料在目前的技术水平下难以完全满足或者建模理论不完善等原因,其在水文预报中的应用效果还不太理想。因此,本文建立了自回归模型尝试对DDRM模型的模拟结果进行降雨-径流的实时校正。利用Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数、径流深相对误差等方面对校正前后的模拟结果进行比较分析,结果表明:在DDRM模型的基础上采用自回归模型对误差进行校正提高了预报精度,能在一定程度上弥补分布式水文模型在实际应用中由于资料不足等原因而带来的精度下降的问题。
英文摘要:
      Taking Qingjiang River Shuibuya upstream basin as research object,the paper extracted terrain characteristics information by use of DEM data, and used DEM based distributed hydrological model to simulate the rainfall-runoff processes in this basin.The application effect of distributed hydrological model is not ideal in hydrological forecast for the lack of dada and the imperfect theory. So the paper set up self regression model to correct the simulation result of rainfall and runoff,and compared with that of uncorrected result in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency and the relative errors of total runoff amount.The conclusion showed that autoregression model can correct error of flood forecast result of DDRM effectively, and compensate make up the degradation of forecast accuracy of distributed hydrological model for the lack of data to a certain extent.
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