水资源与水工程学报

文章摘要

李松晨，杨高升，杨帆，李琦.基于脆性理论的城市防洪系统探究Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2015,26(1):154-158

基于脆性理论的城市防洪系统探究

Research on urban flood control system based on brittleness theory

DOI：10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.01.030

英文关键词: flood control system brittleness theory coefficient of system safety urban water logging urban flood control

基金项目:水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目（201201017）

Author Name	Affiliation
LI Songchen ¹, YANG Gaosheng¹, YANG Fan², Li Qi³	（1.河海大学工程管理研究所, 江苏南京 211100 2.华润置地（南京）有限公司, 江苏南京 210005 3.云和县水利局, 浙江云和 323600）

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中文摘要:

近年来城市内涝事件频发，突出了城市防洪问题。本文基于复杂系统脆性理论，运用脆性结构模型，结合故障树分析法提取脆性因子，构建了城市防洪系统的脆性模型，提出防洪系统功能失效的本质是系统崩溃。借助风险熵理论提出城市防洪系统的脆性风险计算方法，并引入系统安全系数判定系统的崩溃趋势。最后，借助MIKE11软件进行水动力仿真模拟，以苏州地区为例进行实证计算，验证了理论方法的有效性的同时，为苏州地区城市防洪预警提供了可靠的分析数据。

英文摘要:

In recent years, frequent incidents of urban water logging have highlighted the problems of urban flood control. Based on the brittleness theory of completed system, the paper used brittleness structure model,and combined fault tree analysis(FTA) methed to extract brittleness factors, and constructed the model of urban flood control system.Therefore, the nature of failure of flood control system function is system crash.Then,by aid of theory of risk entropy, the paper proposed risk calculation method of urban flood control system and introduced system safety coefficient to determine the trend of system crash.Finally,it used MIKE11 hydrodynamic simulation software to carry out hydrodynamic simulation.Taking Suzhou area for example,it validated the effectiveness of theoretical method.The result can provide the reliable data for city flood warning of Suzhou area.

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