文章摘要
杨 佳, 钱 会.时间序列分析在地下水位动态预测中的应用Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2015,26(1):58-62
时间序列分析在地下水位动态预测中的应用
Application of time series analysis in prediction of groundwater level dynamic
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.01.011
中文关键词: 地下水位  时间序列分析  地下水动态预测
英文关键词: groundwater level  time series analysis  prediction of groundwater level dynamic
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41172212)
Author NameAffiliation
YANG Jia, QIAN Hui (长安大学环境科学与工程学院 陕西 西安 710054 
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中文摘要:
      运用时间序列分析理论,结合SPSS统计分析软件对贺兰县地下水位动态变化进行了模拟和预测。结果表明:研究区地下水位年际变化无明显上升或下降的趋势,这表明研究区地下水补径排条件近年来变化不大。受灌溉和降雨的影响,研究区地下水位变化主要表现为一年的显著周期。将时间序列分析方法应用于地下水位动态预测,可以了解地下水位的变化趋势和周期性。该法计算简单,所需资料较少,短期预测精度较高。但是在实际应用时,数据需要不断及时更新。同时由于没有考虑地下水流系统的动力学机制和未来突变情况,应用时受到了一定限制,还需进一步完善。
英文摘要:
      Combined with SPSS statistical analysis software, time series analysis theory was applied to simulate and forecast the dynamic change of groundwater level in Helan. The result shows that the annual variation of groundwater level has no significant ascending or descending trend which means a little change of the condition of recharge, run-off and discharge of groundwater in the study area. Affected by irrigation and rainfall, the groundwater level mainly shows period variation of one year in the study area. It applied time series analysis method to forecast the dynamic change of groundwater level so as to know the trend and period of groundwater level.The method has simple computation and a high accuracy in short period, and needs less data. But the data should be continually and promptly updated in practical application. Its application is limited in certain degree and needs to be improved because of ignoring the hydraulic mechanism of groundwater flow system and the abrupt change of the future.
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