According to the characteristics of landforms,distribution situation of water resource, society economy and development state of energy industry in Malian river basin,the paper generalized the basin into 5 water resource partitions.Then it formed 12 plans according to the development speed of society economy and the construction speed of water conservancy project in 2020 and 2030.It predicted the quantities of water supply and demand of 12 plans by use of indicators analysis.The analysis indicated that the maximum probability plan in 2020 is the program that social economy is quickly developed and water conservancy projects is slowlly constructed. The total amount of water requirement and supply is 645 million and 467million cubic meter.The water shortage rate is 27.56%. In 2030, the maximum probability plan will be the program of social economy with high-speed development in 2020 and with low-speed development in 2030,and water conservancy projects with high-speed construction.The total amount of water requirement and supply is 1033 and 872 million cubic meter,and water shortage rate is 15.62%.The allocation scheme of water resources according to supply and demand balance can decrease the integrated water shortage rate year after year and impel the water resource of basin to better service for the socio-economic high-speed development,and improve the level of water supply and water use.The result can provide strong protection and support for production and life safety in the basin.