文章摘要
傅丽昕.1957-2010年新疆克拉玛依市降水量的持续性和趋势性统计特征分析Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2014,25(4):233-236
1957-2010年新疆克拉玛依市降水量的持续性和趋势性统计特征分析
Analysis of statistic feature for duration and tendency of annual precipitation in Karamay city during 1957-2010
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2014.04.048
中文关键词: 降水量  趋势性检验  Hurst指数; 降水量变化特征; 克拉玛依市
英文关键词: precipitation  trend test  Hurst index  precipitation feature  Karamay City
基金项目:
Author NameAffiliation
FU Lixin (水利部新疆水利水电勘测设计研究院 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000) 
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中文摘要:
      在克拉玛依市1957-2010年的年均降水量以及季节降水量资料的基础上,运用Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验以及R/S法和最小二乘法分析计算了年均降水量和各季节降水量的趋势性及Hurst指数,以统计计算结果估计未来降水量的变化趋势及其持续特征。结果表明:克拉玛依市年均降水量有显著增加的趋势,但其增加的持续性不强;春季和秋季降水量与年均降水量的趋势性与持续性相近,夏季降水量具有减少的趋势,且具有持续性;冬季降水量具有减少趋势,但减少趋势具有随机性。
英文摘要:
      Based on the data of annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation of Karamay from 1957 to 2010, the paper used non parametric statistical test of Mann-Kendall and R/S method and the least square method analyzed the trend and Hurst index of average annual precipitation and season precipitation, and estimated the variation trend and sustainable features of future precipitation. The results showed that the average annual precipitation of Karamay has significantly increased, but the persistence of the increase is not strong; the trend of spring and autumn precipitation is similar with persistent of annual precipitation, summer precipitation has a decreasing trend and persistent; winter precipitation has a decreasing trend, but the decreasing trend is random.
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