文章摘要
周念清, 李章平, 沈新平, 刘晓群.洞庭湖区极端降水统计分布模型分析与特征重现Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2014,25(4):11-15
洞庭湖区极端降水统计分布模型分析与特征重现
Analysis of statistical distribution model of extreme precipitation and characteristics return in Dongting lake
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2014.04.003
中文关键词: 极端日降水; 统计分布; 重现特征  洞庭湖
英文关键词: extreme daily precipitation  statistical distribution  return characteristics  Dongting Lake
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41272249);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20110072110020)
Author NameAffiliation
ZHOU Nianqing1, LI Zhangping1, SHEN Xinping2, LIU Xiaoqun2 (1.同济大学 水利工程系 上海 200092 2.湖南省洞庭湖水利工程管理局 长沙 410007) 
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中文摘要:
      以洞庭湖区汉寿、临湘、湘阴3个城市1990年至2012年逐日降水资料为基础,选取3参数广义极值(GEV)分布和2参数耿贝尔(Gumbel)分布两种统计分布,采用极大似然法估计模型参数,阐述了两统计分布对极端日降水拟合过程,使用χ2拟合优度检验法和均方根误差(RMSE)评判拟合效果,确定洞庭湖区极端日降水统计分布模型,并分析极端日降水重现特征。研究结果表明:洞庭湖最大日降水统计分布为GEV分布,洞庭湖区最大日降水重现水平差异很明显,为当地排水工程设计提供了科学依据。
英文摘要:
      Based on the daily precipitation data of Hanshou, Linxiang and Xiangyin in Dongting Lake from 1990 to 2012,the paper choose generalized extreme value distribution with three parameters and Gumbel distribution with two parameters in detail and took the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters, and elaborated the process of extreme daily precipitation of two statistics distribution,and used χ2 chi-square goodness-of-fit test and RMSE to evaluate imitative effect and decide statistical distribution model for extreme precipitation in Dongting Lake,and analyzed the return characteristics of extreme daily rainfall. The results show that the statistical distribution model of the maximum daily precipitation for Dongting Lake is GEV distribution.The difference of return level about maximum daily rainfall in Dongting Lake is obvious. The result can provide scientific basis for the design of local drainage engineering.
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