文章摘要
石启中, 穆振侠.近60年来伊宁市气候变化特征分析Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2014,25(3):180-184
近60年来伊宁市气候变化特征分析
Feature analysis of climate change in Yining for recent sixty years
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2014.03.037
中文关键词: 降水  气温  变化特征  突变
英文关键词: precipitation  temperature  variation feature  mutation
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51209181);新疆维吾尔自治区高等学校科研计划项目(XJEDU2011S17);新疆自治区地方公派出国留学成组配套项目(XJDF201307);新疆水文学及水资源重点学科基金(xjswszyzdxk20101202)
Author NameAffiliation
SHI Qizhong1, MU Zhenxia2 (1.新疆伊犁河流域开发建设管理局 乌鲁木齐 830000
2.新疆农业大学 水利与土木工程学院, 乌鲁木齐 830052) 
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中文摘要:
      为较好的认识研究区的气候特征及其变化趋势,更好应对与气候变化相关方面的工作,利用伊宁站1952-2011年逐月平均气温与降水资料,采用线性趋势分析法和差积曲线法分析了伊宁市气候的年际、年代际变化特性及突变特性。结果表明:伊宁站平均气温表现为波动升高的趋势,并以春季和冬季气温升高最为明显,年平均气温的线性倾向率为每10年增加0.43℃;多年平均年降水量表现为波动增多的趋势,其中以秋季和冬季增加较明显,年平均降水量的线性倾向率为每10年增加13.0 mm;气温以20世纪70年代以后升高幅度较大,降水各年代际间总体表现为先减少后增加的波动变化趋势,其中50-70年代降水量呈减少趋势,80年代-21世纪降水量呈增加趋势,并以21世纪增加较明显;基于差积曲线法研究区气候特征表现为由过去的暖干向现在的暖湿过渡,这一趋势以1997年后较明显。
英文摘要:
      In order to better know the climatic characteristics and trend of research area and cope with relevant work on climate change, the paper used the average monthly temperature and precipitation data at Yining station from 1952 to 2011,and took linear trend analysis and difference plot curve methods to analyze the inter annual, inter-decadal variation characteristics and mutation characteristics. It is found that the average in Yili station shows the tendency of fluctuation increase.The temperature go up obviously in spring and winter.The linear trend rate of average temperature of is 0.43℃/10a;The annual average rainfall shows a trend of fluctuated growing which is obvious in autumn and winter.The linear trend of annual average precipitation is 13.0mm/10a;The temperature has increased greatly since 1970's.The precipitation shows the volatility trends of decrease first and then increase,there was a decreasing trend from 1950's to 1970's and increase trend. The precipitation shows an increasing trend from 1990's to 21st century and obviously increases in 21st century;Based on the difference plot curve method, the climate characteristics presented a transition trend from the last warm dry to warm wet now.The trend has been clear since 1997.
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