文章摘要
孙 雪, 王小松, 程莉蓉, 李世君.时间序列模型在北京西山地区岩溶地下水位预测中的应用Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2014,25(3):161-164
时间序列模型在北京西山地区岩溶地下水位预测中的应用
Application of time series model in prediction of karst groundwater level in Xishan region of Beijing
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2014.03.033
中文关键词: 地下水位  动态变化  时间序列模型  地下水位预测
英文关键词: groundwater level  dynamic change  time series model  prediction of karst groundwater
基金项目:北京岩溶水资源勘查评价工程项目(BJYRS-KC-05)
Author NameAffiliation
SUN Xue1,2, WANG Xiaosong3, CHENG Lirong1,2, LI Shijun3 (1. 北京师范大学 水科学研究院 北京 100875 2.地下水污染控制与修复教育部工程研究中心, 北京 100875 3.北京市地质工程勘察院 北京 100037) 
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中文摘要:
      作为北京水资源储备区,北京西山地区地下水位动态变化对北京市水资源管理具有重大意义。时间序列模型是研究预测地下水水位动态变化特征的有效方法。为了解北京西山地区地下水位未来变化趋势,本文选用北京西山地区地下水位长观序列,通过拟合序列的趋势项、周期项及随机项分量,建立地下水位动态变化模型。模型精度检验表明模型拟合程度良好,预测结果显示西山地区未来五年内地下水位呈现动态平衡状态。
英文摘要:
      As a reserve area of water resources in Beijing, the dynamic change of groundwater level in Xishan region is of great significance to water resources management. Time series analysis is an effective tool to predict the dynamic change of groundwater level.In order to investigate the variation trend of groundwater level in Xishan region, the paper built the dynamic variation model of groundwater level by use of long monitoring data series of groundwater level in Xishan region of Beijing through fitting the trend component, periodic component and stochastic component of the series.The accuracy test of model indicated that fitting degree of model is good and the groundwater level in this region will appear the state of dynamic balance in the following five years.
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