文章摘要
邵广文, 管仪庆, 管章岑, 沙志贵, 张丹蓉.皇甫川径流变化趋势及成因分析Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2014,25(3):53-56
皇甫川径流变化趋势及成因分析
Analysis of variation trend of runoff and driving factors in Huangfuchuan
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2014.03.011
中文关键词: 径流  年内变化  年际变化  突变分析  趋势分析
英文关键词: runoff  annual variation  interannual variation  analysis of mutation  trend analysis
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51209064、41102160); 国土资源部公益行业科研专项(201311076)
Author NameAffiliation
SHAO Guangwen1, GUAN Yiqing1, GUAN Zhangqin2, SHA Zhigui3, ZHANG Danrong1 (1.河海大学 水文水资源学院 南京 2100982.山东烟台职业技术学院 烟台 2640003.长江水利委员会综合管理中心 武汉 430010) 
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中文摘要:
      采用多种方法对皇甫川1954-2010年实测径流数据进行分析。通过集中度等方法分析表明,皇甫川径流年内分布极不均匀,主要集中在7-9月,径流年际变化较大。运用滑动平均法和Spearman秩次检验法,证明1954-2010年径流呈显著下降趋势。联合运用有序聚类法和T检验法,检验出皇甫川径流于1983和1999年发生突变,并分析了气候与人类活动对径流变化趋势和突变的影响。结果表明:皇甫川径流量减少主要受到气温升高和人类活动的影响; 1983和1999年皇甫川径流向下突变与气温的上升突变时间基本吻合,同时人类活动对径流变化的影响也愈来愈大。
英文摘要:
      This paper analyzed the observed runoff series of Huangfuchuan from 1954 to 2010 by using a variety of methods. According to the analysis of concentration degree method, the annual distribution of runoff is severely inhomogeneous and mainly concentrates from July to September. The runoff interannual variation is greater.It used the moving average method and Spearman order correlativity check to prove that the trend of runoff was significantly decreased from 1954 to 2010. Through joint application of sequential cluster method and T test, it check out that runoff occurred mutation in 1983 and 1999. It also respectively analyzed the impact of climate and human activities on variation trend and mutation of runoff. The results show that runoff reduction of Huangfuchuan is mainly affected by the rise of temperature and human activities; The time of runoff downward mutation is largely in line with that of temperature upward mutation in 1983 and 1999. The influence of human activities on runoff changes is more and more.
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