文章摘要
周 冲, 张天山, 徐海波, 员 鹏.影响我国热带气旋的频数与强度预测研究及其在海洋工程中的应对Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2013,24(6):64-68
影响我国热带气旋的频数与强度预测研究及其在海洋工程中的应对
Study on forecast effect of frequency and strength on tropical cyclones in China and respond of ocean engineering
  
DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2013.06.015
中文关键词: 热带气旋  Spearman趋势检验  R/S分析  海洋工程
英文关键词: tropical cyclone  spearman trend test  R/S analysis  ocean engineering
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41006053); 水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001072)
Author NameAffiliation
ZHOU Chong1, ZHANG Tianshan2, XU Haibo3, YUN Peng3 (1.浙江省河海测绘院, 浙江 杭州310008
2.浙江广川咨询有限公司, 浙江 杭州 310020
3.浙江省水利河口研究院, 浙江 杭州 310020) 
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中文摘要:
      应用滑动平均的方法,对近58年影响我国的热带气旋频数,强度和年极值强度进行趋势分析,并应用Spearman非参数趋势检验法进行了显著性检验。在此基础上应用基于分形理论的R/S方法对未来的热带气旋频数、强度和年极值强度进行了趋势预测。分析表明:未来影响我国的热带气旋频数、强度、年极值强度都是呈增加增强趋势的。最后,给出了面对热带气旋强度增强的海洋工程的应对方法。
英文摘要:
      The moving average method was adopted to analyze the trend of the frequencies, strengths and annual extreme strengths witch affect tropical cyclones in China in the past 58 years. The Spearman rank correlation was adopted to conduct significance test. Then the paper predicted the future trends of frequencies, strengths and the annual extreme strengths of tropical cyclones by r/s analysis method based on fractal theory. The results show that the frequencies, strengths and annual extreme strengths witch affect tropical cyclones in China will present the trend of increase and augment. At last this paper introduced several countermeasures people adopt when they face the stronger tropical cyclones in ocean engineering.
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