文章摘要
柯 琳,叶 茂,凌红波,涂文霞,陈 幺.近48年区域气候变化对精河地表径流的影响分析Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2013,24(1):54-59,63
近48年区域气候变化对精河地表径流的影响分析
Analysis of regional climate change impact on surface runoff inJinghe river in recent forty-eight years
Received:October 25, 2012  Revised:November 05, 2012
DOI:
中文关键词: 气候变化  小波分析  突变检验  趋势预测  精河源流区
英文关键词: climate change  wavele analysis  abrupt change test  trend prediction  Jinghe source area river
基金项目:新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源实验室基金(XJDX0909-2010-11)
Author NameAffiliation
KE Lin School of Geographical Sciences and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China 
YE Mao School of Geographical Sciences and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China 
LING Hongbo Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China 
TU Wenxia School of Geographical Sciences and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China 
CHEN Yao Tourism and Environment College, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi''an 710062, China [KH*3D] 
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中文摘要:
      利用精河源流区近48年的降水、气象以及径流数据,借助非参数检验、小波分析、周期性叠加趋势模型等方法分析了精河流域气候因子及年径流量的变化趋势以及气候因子对径流影响量分离。结果表明:①在未来的50年气温、降水以及径流量仍将保持原来增加的趋势。②在年际变化上,年气温、降水量和径流量均存在11、14、16年的变化周期。③利用周期性叠加趋势模型对源流来水量进行模拟和预测,1998-2008年气候变化对径流量的影响是积极的,分离出近10年气候变化对径流量的影响量知降水量变化对精河径流影响更突出。
英文摘要:
      Using non-parametric tests, wavelet transform, cyclical overlay trend model analysis methods, the paper analyzed climate factors in Jinghe River basin and the change trend of annual runoff and the separation of influence of climate factors on runoff volume based on the precipitation,meteorological and flow data in Jinghe source area for nearly 48years, Results show that:① In the next 50years temperatures, rainfall and runoff will remain original trend of increase. ② In the interannual variations, the temperature, precipitation and runoff exist are 11,4, 16years of change cycle. ③ Using periodic superimposed trend model to simulate and forecast origin runoff, the influence of climate change on runoff from 1998to 2008was positive, separating out nearly 10years influence quantity of climate change on runoff know that the influence of precipitation change on JingHe runoff is more outstanding.
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