水资源与水工程学报

文章摘要

舒媛媛,周维博,刘雷,董起广,李云排.基于主成分分析的BP神经网络在延安市需水预测中的应用Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2012,23(6):172-175

基于主成分分析的BP神经网络在延安市需水预测中的应用

Application of BP neutral networks to water demand forcast of Yan''an City based on principle component analysis

Received:August 10, 2012 Revised:September 08, 2012

DOI：10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2012.06.041

中文关键词: 需水预测主成分分析法 BP神经网络延安市

英文关键词: water demand prediction method of principle component analysis BP neutral networks Yan''an City

基金项目:

Author Name	Affiliation
SHU Yuanyuan	School of Environment Science and Technology,Chang''an University,xi''an 710054,China [KH*3D]
ZHOU Weibo	School of Environment Science and Technology,Chang''an University,xi''an 710054,China [KH*3D]
LIU Lei	School of Environment Science and Technology,Chang''an University,xi''an 710054,China [KH*3D]
DONG Qiguang	School of Environment Science and Technology,Chang''an University,xi''an 710054,China [KH*3D]
LI Yunpai	School of Environment Science and Technology,Chang''an University,xi''an 710054,China [KH*3D]

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中文摘要:

利用延安市1990～2010年的需水量数据,采用主成分分析法对影响水资源需求量的10个因子进行了分析。结果表明:GDP、降雨量、居民生活用水量及生态环境用水量4个因子为影响需水量的主要因子,将此作为主要因子构造BP神经网络的输入样本,建立延安市需水量预测模型。模拟结果与实际值相吻合,并利用模型对2015年需水量进行了预测。

英文摘要:

Taking the water demand data from 1990to 2010of Yan''an City of Shaanxi Province, this paper analyzes the main factors that influences the water resource quantity based on the principle component analysis method. The results show that GDP, rainfall, residents living water consumption and ecological environment water consumption are the primary indexes that affact the water demand. Taking the main indexes as input samples, the paper set up forcast model of water demand. The simulation results are consistent with the actual value, and use the model to predict water demand in 2015.

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