水资源与水工程学报

文章摘要

贾玉红,宋松柏.陕北地区年降水量频率分布参数估算研究Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering[J].,2012,23(5):48-50

陕北地区年降水量频率分布参数估算研究

Parameters estimation of annual precipitation frequency distribution in north region of Shaanxi Province

Received:June 05, 2012 Revised:June 27, 2012

DOI：10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2012.05.011

英文关键词: precipitation frequency analysis probabilistic distribution model parameter estimating north region of Shaanxi province

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51179160、50879070、50579065)；高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20110204110017)资助

Author Name	Affiliation
JIA Yuhong	College of Water Resources & Architecture Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China Inner Mongolia Water Resources Bureau, Chifeng 024000, China
SONG Songbai	College of Water Resources & Architecture Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China

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中文摘要:

以陕北地区年降水量系列为基础资料,选取12种概率分布模型,分别按矩法、极大似然法估计参数,并参照离差平方和最小准则OLS进行了参数优选,最终优选出在OLS准则下的最佳分布模型、参数计算方法以及最优分布不同频率下的设计值。结果表明:在OLS准则下,对数正态分布(LN2)或广义极值分布(GEV)拟合效果好。文中计算结果可以为水利工程的规划设计与运行以及水资源管理提供依据。

英文摘要:

Based on the annual precipitation data of north region of Shaanxi, using the moment method, maximum likelihood estimation and probability-weighted moment method, the best theoretical frequency distribution, best method of estimating parameters and annual precipitation of different frequency have been obtained by OLS standard from 12 types of frequency distribution model. The results show that LN2 and GEV have good fitting. The results can provide the basis for water conservancy project planning, design, construction and operation management.

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